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The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction — discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the ES Weekly Plan | October 13-17, 2025 for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
Friday’s session saw a notable multi-distribution trend day, which ultimately resulted in an outside week down, ending the weekly one-time framing up in the process. The final downside target (FDT) at 6732 was tagged and exceeded in the D-period, with the VIX breaching its resistance level at 17.34, confirming weakness. Regular readers of this newsletter know I generally avoid fading in such scenarios, as they often signal potential for further downside—a simple yet powerful concept that helps avoid fighting heavy trend days.
Friday’s notable multi-distribution trend day printed a 214-handle range and effectively erased 20 days’ worth of gains. Following this, an after-hours flush unfolded, which will be important to monitor early in the week for continuation or lack thereof.
Acceptance back within Friday’s range could open the door to short-covering, given how one-sided and emotionally charged Friday’s auction was, while failure to do so would maintain downside pressure. Note that tomorrow is a bank holiday, with bonds closed.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 6592—Friday’s RTH low, aligning with a prior weekly VPOC. Holding below 6592 would signal weakness, targeting 6560 (DT1), with a final downside target (FDT) at 6525—the previous month’s VAL—under sustained selling pressure.
On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 6592 would open the door to short-covering, targeting the spike base at 6619 (UT1). Acceptance above 6619 would signal strength, targeting 6642 (UT2), with a final upside target (FUT) at 6670—the HVN—under sustained buying pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 6592.
Break and hold above 6592 would target 6619 / 6642 / 6670
Holding below 6592 would target 6560 / 6525
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 23.24 and 20.08. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 6670 with VIX below 20.08 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 6525 with VIX above 23.24 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
lol final upside target already hit. quite the market.
Thanks Smash!