ES Daily Plan | November 8, 2024
My preparations and expectations for the upcoming session.
For new followers: The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final yellow upside target and shorts below the final yellow downside target. It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.
Visual Representation
Contextual Analysis
Quick update today, as I’ll be wrapping up the week. The significant moves over the last two sessions have us now trading 100 handles above the Weekly Extreme High of 5900 and 236 handles above the 5D VPOC (short-term value), making it a good time to let other traders handle the price discovery process. The 5D VPOC is expected to shift higher tomorrow. I’ll be back over the weekend to prepare for the week ahead.
The overnight session held within Wednesday’s upper distribution, signaling strength and leading to price exploration higher. The RTH session opened with its second consecutive true gap higher, showing no interest in trading below the opening level—clear evidence of a lack of strong sellers, keeping the freight train intact. The initial upside target at 5980 was tagged early, while the final upside target at 6000 was tagged in the G-period. The VIX remained glued to its support level at 15.14 (LOD: 15.13) for a couple of periods, and it was interesting to observe how the first tag of 6000 resulted in a solid pullback, aligning with the VIX support. Buyers eventually broke the 6000 level, but the session pulled back into the close.
Another true gap higher today held, leading to a new ATH (6013) and forming a balanced profile. The primary objective for sellers is to end the daily one-time framing up and fill the gap at 5967. Failure to do so would maintain the upside pressure. As for myself, I'll wrap up the week and leave the price discovery process to other traders tomorrow. Have a great weekend!
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 6001. Holding above this level signals strength, targeting an upside continuation toward 6030, with a final target at 6055 under sustained buying pressure. Failure to hold above 6001 would target 5981, with a final target at the unfilled gap at 5967 under sustained selling pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow's session, I will closely observe the behavior around 6001.
Holding above 6001 would target 6030 / 6055
Break and hold below 6001 would target 5981 / 5967
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 16.10 and 14.28. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 6055 with VIX below 14.28 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 5967 with VIX above 16.10 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Weekly Plan
Make sure to review the Weekly Plan, which provides a broader perspective and highlights key levels of interest to observe in the upcoming week.
Thank you, buddy! Great play today!
Thanks! HAGW Smash!