The VIX resistance at 20.06 lining up with buyer support during the pullback is exactly the kind of confluece that makes for cleaner entries. That 6745 level holding after the overnight weakness shows good institutional defense. Watching for RTH to reclaim 6785 could signal another leg higher if volume confirms.
Smash, good evening, thank you for providing this great post daily. I wanted to ask you, when the Weekly says "TBD," does it mean "To Be Determined"? I ask because it makes a lot of sense not to have more MGI to clarify this, for the same reason you mention in the post about the two distributions where we find ourselves in the middle.
When the daily one-time framing ends, the balance is defined after the session that ended it. For the weekly, it’s defined once the week closes. For the monthly, after the month closes. In other words, the weekly balance is determined after Friday’s close.
The key takeaway: the market can never transition directly from OTFU to OTFD within a single bar or candle. This has been my consistent approach since starting the newsletter a couple of years ago.
Please disregard any interpretations of my approach from others unless I’ve personally confirmed they’re accurate—and always verify with me if in doubt.
Te agradezco por numerar los puntos clave en el gráfico del índice ES_F. También te agradezco por compartir tu opinión sobre la situación del índice ES_F. Nos ayuda a orientarnos mejor y a hacer un trading más acertado. UN SALUDO CORDIAL // Ti ringrazio per aver numerato i punti chiave nel grafico dell’indice ES_F. Ti ringrazio anche per aver condiviso la tua opinione sulla situazione dell’indice ES_F. Ci aiuta ad orientarci meglio e a fare trading in modo più certo. UN SALUTO CORDIALE. ''The overnight weakness resulted in a short-covering rally today. Observing the chart, we see two notable high-volume nodes: one at 6885 and another at 6780. The market is currently trading and building value right between them, which makes for a tricky location.
The conditions remain unchanged: buyers aim to gain acceptance back within last week’s range, which they ultimately failed to achieve today. Sellers need to fill the gap at 6785.75 and find acceptance back within the prior multi-week balance area, opening the door to further downside pressure. Tricky two-sided activity is expected as long as neither scenario unfolds.''
Ηi Smash. I think that after the last FOMC meeting, FED's chair '' There’s still a lot of uncertainty around the trajectory of inflation and the labor market. So I would say we’re far from that.” and today's PMI's data, an ES_F 6450.00 won't be a surprise to me.
Hi. If you use Tradingview, use the Fixed Range Volume Profile tool. You can draw a volume profile from any point of the ES_F chart to any other point. The volume profile will show the highest-lowest prices and the value area with the VAL, POC, VAH.
I started drawing the Fixed Volume Profile from MO 3.11.2025 , time 01.00 am EST (Finland) and stopped on WED 5.11.2025, at 24.00 midnight. Three full sessions, 23 hours each. Highest price 6909,50, lowest 6748,50. VAH: 6863,75, POC: 6806,25, VAL: 6782,25.
The VIX resistance at 20.06 lining up with buyer support during the pullback is exactly the kind of confluece that makes for cleaner entries. That 6745 level holding after the overnight weakness shows good institutional defense. Watching for RTH to reclaim 6785 could signal another leg higher if volume confirms.
Smash, good evening, thank you for providing this great post daily. I wanted to ask you, when the Weekly says "TBD," does it mean "To Be Determined"? I ask because it makes a lot of sense not to have more MGI to clarify this, for the same reason you mention in the post about the two distributions where we find ourselves in the middle.
Hey Jacobo!
When the daily one-time framing ends, the balance is defined after the session that ended it. For the weekly, it’s defined once the week closes. For the monthly, after the month closes. In other words, the weekly balance is determined after Friday’s close.
The key takeaway: the market can never transition directly from OTFU to OTFD within a single bar or candle. This has been my consistent approach since starting the newsletter a couple of years ago.
Please disregard any interpretations of my approach from others unless I’ve personally confirmed they’re accurate—and always verify with me if in doubt.
Perfect, Smash! Thanks for taking the time to clear up my doubt. Have a great session and day!
Thanks Smash!
Te agradezco por numerar los puntos clave en el gráfico del índice ES_F. También te agradezco por compartir tu opinión sobre la situación del índice ES_F. Nos ayuda a orientarnos mejor y a hacer un trading más acertado. UN SALUDO CORDIAL // Ti ringrazio per aver numerato i punti chiave nel grafico dell’indice ES_F. Ti ringrazio anche per aver condiviso la tua opinione sulla situazione dell’indice ES_F. Ci aiuta ad orientarci meglio e a fare trading in modo più certo. UN SALUTO CORDIALE. ''The overnight weakness resulted in a short-covering rally today. Observing the chart, we see two notable high-volume nodes: one at 6885 and another at 6780. The market is currently trading and building value right between them, which makes for a tricky location.
The conditions remain unchanged: buyers aim to gain acceptance back within last week’s range, which they ultimately failed to achieve today. Sellers need to fill the gap at 6785.75 and find acceptance back within the prior multi-week balance area, opening the door to further downside pressure. Tricky two-sided activity is expected as long as neither scenario unfolds.''
Ηi Smash. I think that after the last FOMC meeting, FED's chair '' There’s still a lot of uncertainty around the trajectory of inflation and the labor market. So I would say we’re far from that.” and today's PMI's data, an ES_F 6450.00 won't be a surprise to me.
Could you please provide range for prior 3-day balance area?
Hi. If you use Tradingview, use the Fixed Range Volume Profile tool. You can draw a volume profile from any point of the ES_F chart to any other point. The volume profile will show the highest-lowest prices and the value area with the VAL, POC, VAH.
I started drawing the Fixed Volume Profile from MO 3.11.2025 , time 01.00 am EST (Finland) and stopped on WED 5.11.2025, at 24.00 midnight. Three full sessions, 23 hours each. Highest price 6909,50, lowest 6748,50. VAH: 6863,75, POC: 6806,25, VAL: 6782,25.