ES Daily Plan | November 6, 2024
My preparations and expectations for the upcoming session.
For new followers: The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final yellow upside target and shorts below the final yellow downside target. It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.
Visual Representation
Contextual Analysis
Quick update today, as I’m currently away from my desk. Overnight, buyers remained responsive within Thursday’s spike area, with trading activity mostly confined to Monday’s value area. The RTH session then saw a short-covering rally that broke the pattern of lower highs on the daily chart, tagging all intraday upside targets up to 5801 and forming a P-shape profile. Short-covering rallies generally weaken the market when the prevailing trend is to the downside by removing potential buying interest. With that in mind, it's crucial to monitor how well the market sustains today’s rally. We carry forward the weak low at 5724.
Buyers managed to end the daily one-time framing down, triggering a short-covering rally that effectively cleared all our intraday targets. The daily has now formed a 4-day balance, which is of short-term interest, with balance guidelines applying. Notably, the market pushed higher after hours, which we’ll monitor for continuation or lack thereof. A strong market will sustain this after hours move, while a weaker market will find acceptance back within the balance area.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 5811. Holding above this level signals strength, targeting the unfilled daily gap at 5845.50, with a final target at 5870 under sustained buying pressure. Failure to hold above 5811 would target the Weekly VWAP at 5772, with a final target at 5747 under sustained selling pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow's session, I will closely observe the behavior around 5811/5801.
Holding above 5811 would target 5845 / 5870
Break and hold below 5801 would target 5772 / 5747
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 22.12 and 18.86. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 5870 with VIX below 18.86 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 5747 with VIX above 22.12 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Weekly Plan
Make sure to review the Weekly Plan, which provides a broader perspective and highlights key levels of interest to observe in the upcoming week.
We smashed pass all Smashlevels
Price explosion! & VIX open=16.06