ES Daily Plan | November 27/28, 2025
Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead
— For new subscribers
The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction — discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Happy Thanksgiving to those who celebrate!
Contextual Analysis & Plan
Quick update for those trading Friday’s shortened session: Buyers have been in full control of the auction this week after reclaiming the key high volume node at 6670 on Monday. In the process, Thursday’s emotional trend day was fully cleaned up on Tuesday. For the market to remain directional, acceptance above last week’s high at 6791 was needed—a scenario that ultimately played out today.
The overnight session saw an immediate continuation higher, building value above last week’s range. A quick liquidation break took place prior to the RTH open, testing last week’s high at 6791, where buyers stepped in, marking the low of the full session.
Overnight strength led the RTH session to open on a true gap up. Buyers initially failed to hold above UT1 at 6817, triggering an inventory correction. This weakness was not driven by stronger sellers, as they ultimately failed to fill the gap. Buyers then regained control of the opening level, leading to upside continuation, forming a P-shaped profile.
The market was expected to remain directional with acceptance above last week’s range—a scenario that ultimately played out today. For those trading Friday’s shortened session, we have an unfilled daily gap above at 6852 and one below at 6792.50. Acceptance within today’s initial balance opens the door to closing the lower gap, while failure to do so would maintain upside pressure and target the upper gap.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 6824—the Initial Balance High. Holding above 6824 would target the unfilled gap at 6852 (UT1). Acceptance above 6852 would signal strength, targeting 6865 (UT2), with a final upside target (FUT) at 6885 under sustained buying pressure.
On the flip side, failure to hold 6824 would shift focus to the unfilled gap at 6792.50 (DT1), with a final downside target (FDT) at 6760 under sustained selling pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 6824.
Holding above 6824 would target 6852 / 6865 / 6885
Break and hold below 6824 would target 6792 / 6760
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 18.12 and 16.26. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 6885 with VIX below 16.26 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 6760 with VIX above 18.12 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Happy Thanksgiving Smash! I'm thankful for you and this newsletter!
Happy Thanksgiving to all.