ES Daily Plan | November 27, 2024
My preparations and expectations for the upcoming session.
For new followers: The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final yellow upside target and shorts below the final yellow downside target. It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.
Visual Representation
Contextual Analysis
The overnight session experienced an early, news-driven liquidation break that came within a few handles of the final downside target at 5970 (ONL: 5976). As discussed, the expectation was for two-sided activity within the prior balance area between 6045 and 5970, so it was not surprising to see responsive buyers step in as the market approached 5970. Notably, the liquidation was fully retraced during the overnight session.
The RTH session was relatively uneventful, establishing an initial balance between the initial upside target of 6027 and the intraday pivot at 6009, where the market saw two-sided activity. After a couple of failed attempts to push above 6027, resulting in pullbacks, buyers ultimately closed the session with strength, resulting in an upward spike as the M-period set a new daily high.
Immediate attention is on the closing strength, highlighted by the M-period spike. Both the RTH ATH (6045.25) and ON ATH (6053.25) remain intact after today’s session, making them obvious targets. A strong market would clean up the unfinished business and resume price exploration higher, while the most favorable outcome for sellers would involve a failed attempt to move higher (cleaning up the ON ATH) followed by a return below 6035.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 6035, marking the M-period spike base. Holding above this level would target the RTH ATH of 6045.25 and the ON ATH of 6053.25, with a final target at 6070 under sustained buying pressure. Failure to hold above 6035 would target the Weekly VWAP at 6017, with a final target at the support area between 6000 and 5990 under sustained selling pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow's session, I will closely observe the behavior around 6035.
Holding above 6035 would target 6045 / 6053 / 6070
Break and hold below 6035 would target 6017 / 6000 / 5990
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 14.84 and 13.36. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 6070 with VIX below 13.36 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 5990 with VIX above 14.84 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Weekly Plan
Make sure to review the Weekly Plan, which provides a broader perspective and highlights key levels of interest to observe in the upcoming week.
Thank you, buddy! Ranging day but scalped longs and shorts.