ES Daily Plan | November 15, 2024
My preparations and expectations for the upcoming session.
For new followers: The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final yellow upside target and shorts below the final yellow downside target. It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.
Visual Representation
Contextual Analysis
The overnight session was quiet, with a muted reaction to the PPI data, largely contained within the prior day’s value area. In contrast, the RTH session turned more directional, eventually testing and breaking below the 5-day balance low.
The A-period saw an impulsive move lower early on, with sellers taking control of the auction and holding the market below the full session VWAP. The initial downside target at 5994 was tagged in the B-period, once again providing a solid reaction. A break below 5994 was noted as intraday bearish, and sellers achieved this in the G-period. Following the break, buyers struggled to regain the 5994 level over several periods, eventually leading to a downside continuation in the afternoon session. The final downside target was the unfilled gap at 5967, which missed being filled by just a couple of ticks during the M-period (LOD: 5968.75). However, the tag was achieved in after-hours trading, though I’m keeping the level on my chart.
Today's session saw a break below the recent 5-day balance area, closing right at its lower extreme. The key question now is whether initiating sellers can sustain follow-through to the downside and gain traction within last week’s middle distribution. In the absence of follow-through, the high volume node at 6025 will act as an upside magnet. OPEX tomorrow.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 5979, marking the G-period low. Holding below this level signals weakness, targeting 5946, with a final target at the prior ATH of 5925 under sustained selling pressure. Failure to hold below 5979 would open the door for a failed breakdown scenario, targeting 6000, with a final target at the resistance area between 6015 and the HVN at 6025 under sustained buying pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow's session, I will closely observe the behavior around 5979.
Break and hold above 5979 would target 6000 / 6015 / 6025
Holding below 5979 would target 5946 / 5925
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 14.96 and 13.66. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 6025 with VIX below 13.66 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 5925 with VIX above 14.96 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Weekly Plan
Make sure to review the Weekly Plan, which provides a broader perspective and highlights key levels of interest to observe in the upcoming week.
Thank you buddy! Another Green Day!
Levels on point as always! Thank you!