ES Daily Plan | November 13, 2025
Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead
— For new subscribers
The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction — discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
The overnight session kicked off with a shallow pullback, finding buyers two handles shy of the Smashlevel at 6866—the lower end of Tuesday’s upper distribution. Price then explored above Tuesday’s range, tagging the UT1 at 6885 in the process, where upside momentum temporarily stalled. Another shallow pullback occurred before a continuation higher. Since reaching the prior 3-day balance, the key has been to establish acceptance—which Tuesday’s upper distribution did a good job of—to target a value traverse toward the resistance area between 6900 and 6909. This was accomplished during the European session, where passive sellers absorbed aggressive buyers at the resistance, triggering a reversal (see Figure 1). This ultimately marked the high of the full session.
The RTH session opened on a true gap up, which was immediately filled after sellers gained control of the opening level early on. Buyers attempted a classic gap-fill reversal; however, they were ultimately unable to hold above Tuesday’s high, with sellers defending the UT1 at 6885. Sellers controlled the auction from the open, with their main objective being acceptance back within Tuesday’s lower distribution—making both the Smashlevel at 6866 and the DT1 at 6852 key levels to watch for a break, which could trigger a traverse of Tuesday’s range. Downside momentum abruptly stopped at 6852 (see Figure 2), exactly at Tuesday’s Initial Balance high—a level that stronger sellers would likely have had no trouble breaking. Directional price action shifted into more two-sided activity during the afternoon session, as buyers managed to return within Tuesday’s upper distribution. Notably, both short-term value (5D VPOC) and medium-term value (20D VPOC) have aligned within today’s range, meaning the market is building energy for another directional move.
Contextually, not much has changed after today’s session, which saw early weakness met by responsive buyers rejecting Tuesday’s lower distribution. While upside momentum has slowed since reaching prior balance, buyers remain in control. Only ending the daily one-time framing up and accepting back within Tuesday’s lower distribution could shift the short-term tone.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 6865—today’s value support, where notable orderflow activity was observed. Holding above 6865 signals strength, targeting 6885 (UT1). Acceptance above 6885 would indicate further strength, targeting the resistance area between 6900 and 6909 (UT2), with a final upside target at 6935—the Weekly Extreme High—under sustained buying pressure.
On the flip side, failure to hold 6865 would shift focus to Tuesday’s initial balance high at 6852 (DT1). Acceptance below 6852 would signal weakness, targeting 6836 (DT2), with a final downside target (FDT) at 6816 under sustained selling pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 6865.
Holding above 6865 would target 6885 / 6900-09 / 6935
Break and hold below 6865 would target 6852 / 6836 / 6812
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 18.46 and 16.54. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 6935 with VIX below 16.54 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 6812 with VIX above 18.46 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Thank you
you’re the goat smash