ES Daily Plan | November 13, 2024
My preparations and expectations for the upcoming session.
For new followers: The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final yellow upside target and shorts below the final yellow downside target. It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.
Visual Representation
Contextual Analysis
The overnight session was relatively quiet, trading within Monday’s range. During the European session, an opportunity emerged as the market came down to test our 6018/14 intraday pivot, which proved pivotal throughout the day. After a look below and fail of Monday’s low, the market found support, resulting in a 20-handle reversal.
The RTH session was characterized by aggressive selling, clearly illustrated in today’s delta profile on the chart. The auction was one-time framing down for the initial 7 periods (A to H), with sellers breaking through the 6018/14 level and rejecting the retest from below, leading to further downside. This effectively ended the daily one-time framing up and opened the door to fill structure down toward the 5995/85 support area. During this downward sequence, two sets of single prints were established, and the 5995/85 support was tagged (LOD: 5986.75). This level offered an excellent profit-taking opportunity for shorts, as it was the final downside target for the session, coupled by a quiet VIX remaining well below its resistance. When the market approaches an area contextually unfavorable for chasing shorts within a prevailing uptrend, long setups naturally become attractive, making the subsequent 40-handle bounce unsurprising. The poor structure from the morning session was completely cleaned up in the afternoon—a common behavior in a prevailing uptrend, as the market tends to clean up poor structure above price.
ICYMI
Sellers managed to end the daily one-time framing up today, bringing the daily back to balance—forming a 4-day balance area. The upper end has unfinished business with an untested overnight ATH, while the lower end is defined by Thursday’s excess low. The market continues to maintain within last week's upper distribution, reflecting a strong response in the context of last week's directional move. Only a balance breakdown with acceptance into last week's middle distribution brings potential for change. CPI data is on deck tomorrow.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 6014. Holding below this level would target 5994, with a final target at the unfilled gap at 5967 under sustained selling pressure. Failure to hold below 6014 would target 6034, with a final target at 6053.25, marking the overnight ATH, under sustained buying pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow's session, I will closely observe the behavior around 6014.
Break and hold above 6014 would target 6034 / 6053
Holding below 6014 would target 5994 / 5967
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 15.38 and 14.04. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 6053 with VIX below 14.04 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 5967 with VIX above 15.38 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Weekly Plan
Make sure to review the Weekly Plan, which provides a broader perspective and highlights key levels of interest to observe in the upcoming week.
Thanks!
Thanks Smash