ES Daily Plan | November 10, 2025
Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead
— For new subscribers
The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction — discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
On Friday, the Smashlevel was 6772, tagged to the tick during the overnight session and met with selling activity, resulting in downside continuation (see Figure 1). The market cleared all intraday downside targets down to the FDT at 6700. Both Thursday’s and Friday’s sessions tagged and exceeded their respective final downside targets (FDT), accompanied by an elevated VIX breaching its resistance. This typically opens the door to further weakness, which was indeed observed on Friday as the next level of interest at 6660 was reached.
Friday’s morning session was marked by notable weakness, during which the previous month’s value area was traversed. However, the afternoon session saw a vicious short-covering rally, leading to a close at the session highs, forming a late-day spike. The spike base at 6745 and the 6724 level, where change took place, will be key short-term references to gauge whether Friday’s closing strength will be accepted or rejected.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 6745—Friday’s spike base. Holding above 6745 signals acceptance and targets 6772 (UT1). Acceptance above 6772 would indicate further strength, targeting 6790 (UT2), with a final upside target (FUT) at 6812 under sustained buying pressure.
On the flip side, failure to hold 6745 would shift focus to 6724 (DT1), with a final downside target (FDT) at 6687 under sustained selling pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 6745.
Holding above 6745 would target 6772 / 6790 / 6812
Break and hold below 6745 would target 6724 / 6687
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 20.18 and 17.98. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 6812 with VIX below 17.98 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 6687 with VIX above 20.18 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Thanks Smash!!