ES Daily Plan | May 8, 2026

Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

ES Weekly Plan | May 4-8, 2026

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Contextual Analysis & Plan

As discussed in the previous plan, the auction was becoming extended away from both the 5D and 20D VPOCs, creating an unfavorable risk-reward profile for chasing longs. Another important factor was the market coming just a few handles shy of the Weekly Extreme High at 7405 on Wednesday. Some corrective activity would be constructive. The overnight session opened below Wednesday’s spike base at 7390, but sellers were unable to break 7375 (DT1), which was required to negate Wednesday’s afternoon strength. The 7390 level was then reclaimed, leading to price exploration into uncharted territory.

The overnight delta profile was particularly interesting, as aggressive buying emerged around 7405, the same area where we viewed chasing longs as unfavorable from a risk-reward perspective (see Figure 1). A new overnight ATH was made at 7410.50, which remained untested during RTH and therefore becomes a reference to carry forward as unfinished business.

It’s considered unfinished business because a well-auctioned high is typically formed during regular trading hours, meaning the expectation is that an overnight ATH is revisited before the upward auction is complete.

Figure 1

RTH mirrored the overnight session, with early weakness below 7390 followed by auctioning higher through the C and D-periods. A poor high formed 2 ticks shy of the ON ATH at 7410.50, an early clue that buyers were becoming a bit overextended and crowded. The pullback that followed cleaned up Wednesday’s poor structure, which was not surprising given everything we have discussed.

Smashlevels Recap

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The daily structure of higher highs and higher lows remains intact, suggesting little has changed contextually after today’s session. Buyers are controlling the auction, and only acceptance back within last week’s range has the potential to change that.

We carry forward the untested overnight ATH at 7410.50 and today’s poor high as unfinished business, given the lack of excess.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7378 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7327 (DT1), the top of the gap. NFP on deck tomorrow!

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 7350, where buyers were active today. Holding above 7350 would target today’s halfback at 7378 (UT1). Acceptance above 7378 would signal intraday strength, targeting 7405 (UT2), with a final upside target at 7427 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, failure to hold 7350 would shift focus to the top of the gap at 7327 (DT1), with a final downside target at 7299 (FDT), the true gap, under sustained selling pressure.

Visual Representation

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Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7350.

• Holding above 7350 would target 7378 / 7405 / 7427

• Break and hold below 7350 would target 7327 / 7299

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 18.02 and 16.16. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7427 with VIX below 16.16 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7299 with VIX above 18.02 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.