ES Daily Plan | May 8, 2025

Key Levels & Market Context for the Upcoming Session.

For new followers: The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final yellow upside target and shorts below the final yellow downside target. It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.

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Make sure to review the Weekly Plan, which provides a broader perspective and highlights key levels of interest to observe in the upcoming week.

ES Weekly Plan | May 5-9, 2025

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Visual Representation

ES Daily Plan | May 8, 2025

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Contextual Analysis & Plan

The big moves today—aside from the usual FOMC swings—occurred early in the overnight session. Unfortunately, the daily plan was released 90 minutes after the open. The final upside target (FUT) was 5693, and the opening spike reached 5689.75, which ended up being the high of the full session. In these scenarios, having some sort of chat room would be ideal for quickly sending out levels ahead of the full plan. It’s something I’ll need to figure out. Anyway, this impulsive move was almost fully retraced before the RTH open.

There’s not much to discuss regarding the RTH session, which was fairly quiet ahead of the FOMC meeting, trading within Tuesday’s value area. The gap at 5606.75 was filled during the J-period, where an excess low formed, leading to a move back into value. Note that both the short-term value (5D VPOC) and the medium-term value (20D VPOC) have aligned within today’s range—suggesting the market is coiling for a directional move worth watching. While the weekly time frame is one-time framing up, the monthly is one-time framing down—indicating that the intermediate trend is higher, but the larger trend remains down. This short-term balance can resolve in either direction—stay open minded. So far, sellers have attempted to gain traction within last week’s lower distribution, but without success.

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The M-period—the last 30 minutes of the RTH session—made a new intraday high; however, the spike was retraced, and the session closed back within the value area. The spike base will remain of interest tomorrow, given its alignment with Tuesday’s value area high and the Monthly VWAP. Buyers aim to build value above the last two days' overlapping value area, while the most favorable scenario for sellers involves acceptance back within last week’s lower distribution—as previously discussed—which would put last week’s breakout into question.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 5656—the spike base. Holding below 5656 would target the support area between 5620 and 5610 (DT1), with a final downside target (FDT) at 5573—the spike base from 4/30—under sustained selling pressure. On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 5656 would target 5693 (UT1), with a final upside target (FUT) at 5721 under sustained buying pressure.

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Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 5656.

• Break and hold above 5656 would target 5693 / 5721

• Holding below 5656 would target 5620 / 5610 / 5573

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 24.92 and 22.18. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 5721 with VIX below 22.18 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 5573 with VIX above 24.92 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.