ES Daily Plan | May 7, 2026
Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead
— For new subscribers
The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of the ON ATH at 7304, printed yesterday after hours, which would also imply value building above last week’s range. Buyers immediately reclaimed 7304 during the overnight session and then defended it, resulting in a rather one-sided auction for the rest of the session. In the Weekly Plan, we discussed how 7208 was a critical short-term inflection point if the auction was to clean up the structure from last Thursday’s double distribution trend day. The failure below 7208 ultimately triggered a reversal back in line with the prevailing trend. All upside targets were cleared pre-open (FUT: 7352).
A key principle is that in an uptrend, the best long setups often emerge after a selling effort fails to shift tone and momentum, typically leading to continuation in the direction of the trend. The same applies in reverse for a downtrend, where the best short setups emerge after a buying effort fails.
Overnight strength led RTH to open on a true gap up, and buyers took control of the auction right out of the gate, with minimal trading activity below the opening level, defending 7330 (UT2). The C-period saw an Initial Balance extension to the upside, which buyers then responsively defended during the afternoon pullback in the G and H-periods. Notably, the VIX was not confirming strength, instead rising with the market. It remains to be seen whether that will have any implications for the rest of the week. As discussed, the weekly resistance area between 7375 and 7405 acted as an upside magnet as long as NQ held above its HTF level at 27930, which was reached in the afternoon.
Now, the auction has moved notably away from both the short-term value (5D VPOC) at 7280 and particularly the medium-term value (20D VPOC) at 7160, and today’s high was a few handles shy of the Weekly Extreme High at 7405 (our weekly target). This implies that the risk-reward profile at the current location is unfavorable for initiating new longs. Some corrective activity would be constructive, as it should provide better locations to monitor for reloading buyers. This doesn’t mean fading the move; it simply means we’ve reached an area where pressing longs is tricky. Stay disciplined.
Smashlevels Recap
The LBAF at the key 7208 level early in the week triggered a reversal and continuation in the direction of the trend. Today’s session extended that move after a sustained true gap higher, coming a few handles shy of the 7405 weekly target.
Buyers remain in firm control of the auction. Only acceptance back within last week’s range, closing today’s gap at 7299, has the potential to change that. This means the market can drop 100 handles and buyers would still be in firm control, so pick your trade locations cautiously.
Intraday strength would be indicated by a break and hold above 7405 (UT1), while sellers first and foremost need to negate today’s D-period breakout by gaining acceptance below 7375 (DT1).
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 7390, the spike base. Holding below 7390 would target the D-period high at 7375 (DT1). Acceptance below 7375 would signal intraday weakness, targeting 7355 (DT2), with a final downside target at 7327 (FDT), the top of the gap, under sustained selling pressure.
On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 7390 would shift focus to the Weekly Extreme High at 7405 (UT1). Acceptance above 7405 would signal intraday strength, targeting 7427 (UT2), with a final upside target at 7455 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.
Visual Representation
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7390.
Break and hold above 7390 would target 7405 / 7427 / 7455
Holding below 7390 would target 7375 / 7355 / 7327
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 18.52 and 16.28. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 7455 with VIX below 16.28 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 7327 with VIX above 18.52 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Thank you so much Smash!