ES Daily Plan | May 6, 2026

Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

ES Weekly Plan | May 4-8, 2026

---

Contextual Analysis & Plan

The key question after Monday’s session, during which the auction cleaned up the poor structure from Thursday, was whether sellers could truly shift the tone by gaining acceptance within Thursday’s lower distribution. Failure to do so would keep buyers in control. Buyers reclaimed the Smashlevel at 7242 overnight, something stronger sellers would not have allowed, leading to a steady grind higher that extended into RTH. Prior to the RTH open, NQ finally took out the HTF level at 27930 after several earlier attempts, a move that had the potential to drag ES higher, as discussed in the Weekly Plan. The weekly resistance area between 7375 and 7405 acts as an upside magnet if NQ continues to build value above 27930.

Buyers reclaimed 7268 (UT1) during the Initial Balance, making it difficult to be a seller and suggesting the path of least resistance was a move toward Friday’s excess high, with the final upside target at 7296 (FUT). Overall, it was a rather lackluster RTH session, which is typical during slow grind higher conditions. Outside of continuation plays above 7268 (UT1), there wasn’t much to do, but building value within Friday’s range was a clear sign to stay out of shorts. Friday’s excess high was reached and provided a selling reaction, so technically the daily remains in balance; however, a new ATH was printed after-hours at 7304.25, a reference to carry forward as unfinished business. The short-term value (5D VPOC) shifted higher from 7160 to 7280, another bullish indication. Value continues to follow price.

Smashlevels Recap

---

Sellers needed acceptance into Thursday’s lower distribution to shift the tone, but were ultimately unable to do so, resulting in continuation in line with the prevailing trend today.

Friday’s excess high was revisited, and while it held during RTH (now a weak high), it was taken out after hours, printing a new ON ATH at 7304.25.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7304 (UT1), i.e. value building above last week’s range, while any weakness would require acceptance back within Monday’s lower distribution below 7242 (DT1), which would also imply acceptance back within last month’s range.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 7280, the HVN/APBL. Holding above 7280 signals stability and targets 7304 (UT1). Acceptance above 7304 would signal intraday strength, targeting 7330 (UT2), with a final upside target at 7352 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, failure to hold 7280 would shift focus to the support area between 7251 and 7242 (DT1), with a final downside target at 7212 (FDT) under sustained selling pressure.

Visual Representation

---

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7280.

• Holding above 7280 would target 7304 / 7330 / 7352

• Break and hold below 7280 would target 7251-42 / 7212

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 18.34 and 16.42. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7352 with VIX below 16.42 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7212 with VIX above 18.34 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.