ES Daily Plan | May 6, 2025
Key Levels & Market Context for the Upcoming Session.
For new followers: The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final yellow upside target and shorts below the final yellow downside target. It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.
Make sure to review the Weekly Plan, which provides a broader perspective and highlights key levels of interest to observe in the upcoming week.
Visual Representation
Contextual Analysis & Plan
Quick update today, as the context remains largely unchanged following the session. The overnight session was characterized by immediate weakness, which quickly led to a test of the initial downside target (DT1) at 5677. A quick look below 5677 and fail opened the door for a bounce attempt; however, that attempt ultimately failed, triggering stops. The 5677 level was later revisited prior to the opening of the European session, where sellers were waiting.
The RTH session opened around Friday’s low, and after a look below and fail of Friday’s low, buyers essentially took control of the auction. However, the 5677 level, representing the Monthly VWAP—continued to cause problems for buyers during the initial balance (IB). A key observation in the B-period was that while buyers attempted to gain traction above 5677, the VIX—which had been holding above its resistance at 23.94—dropped back below it, signaling caution for the sellers fiercely defending the level. The C-period reclaimed 5677, and the E-period later provided a buyable pullback. The market ultimately failed to gain acceptance within Friday’s value area, and the closing session saw a liquidation break. Buyers have successfully shifted the 5D VPOC (short-term value) higher from 5550 to 5694—a bullish indication within the context of Thursday’s move from balance. Value continues to follow price, and only a return within last week’s lower distribution introduces the potential for change.
The market is currently in short-term balance, forming a 3-day balance area after breaching Friday’s low. The conditions are straightforward: a strong market response would involve acceptance within Friday’s value area, setting the stage for a test of the balance high and a potential breakout attempt. Conversely, acceptance back within Thursday’s value area opens the door to a test of the balance low and potentially an attempt to fill last week’s gap.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 5663—Thursday’s value area high. Holding above 5663 would target the HVN at 5694 (UT1). Acceptance above 5694 signals strength, targeting Friday’s value area high at 5721 (UT2), with a final upside target (FUT) at 5750 under sustained buying pressure. On the flip side, failure to hold above 5663 would target 5628 (DT1), with a final downside target (FDT) at the unfilled gap at 5606.75 under sustained selling pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 5663.
Holding above 5663 would target 5694 / 5721 / 5750
Break and hold below 5663 would target 5628 / 5606
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 24.94 and 22.34. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 5750 with VIX below 22.34 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 5606 with VIX above 24.94 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Thank you Smashie.. I realy appreciate you giving the further breakdowns lately -Newb
Thank you!