ES Daily Plan | May 5, 2026
Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead
— For new subscribers
The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
The overnight session kicked off with a Look Above and Fail (LAAF) at 7275 (UT1), which remained the session high (ONH: 7279.75). The auction had been building value within Friday’s range before a notable headline-driven liquidation break unfolded during the Euro session. This drop, which came out of nowhere, found responsive buyers within the poor structure from Thursday’s session, leading to a return to the Smashlevel at 7251.
RTH opened with a small true gap down within Thursday’s range, but sellers failed to gain traction early. Buyers attempted to establish acceptance back within the prior day’s range after reclaiming 7251, which is the most bullish outcome when gapping lower. However, a failed initial balance extension in the C-period marked a notable shift in tone. Notice how passive sellers were absorbing aggressive buyers above the Initial Balance High (see Figure 1).
An interesting confluence during this sequence was NQ testing the referenced key level at 27930. Notable weakness followed, leading to the formation of a double distribution profile, with single prints in the D-period. The final downside target at 7208 (FDT) was tagged in the process, where responsive buyers stepped in (see Figure 2). The subsequent bounce found reloading sellers within the D-period singles, coinciding with VIX testing its previously broken resistance level from above at 17.92.
Smashlevels Recap
Friday’s session formed an excess high, marking the end of one auction and the start of another. Today’s session confirmed the shift, ending the daily one-time framing up and establishing value cleanly lower.
Thursday’s poor structure was fully cleaned up in the process, but as previously discussed, unless sellers can gain acceptance back within Thursday’s lower distribution, today’s move was primarily a structural cleanup rather than a true shift in tone.
Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7268 (UT1), i.e. acceptance back into Friday’s value, while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7212 (DT1), opening the door to a move back toward the HVN at 7160.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 7242, the Initial Balance Low. Holding below 7242 would target today’s excess base at 7212 (DT1). Acceptance below 7212 would signal intraday weakness, targeting 7180 (DT1), with a final downside target at 7160 (FDT), the HVN, under sustained selling pressure.
On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 7242 would shift focus to 7268 (UT1), with a final upside target at 7296 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.
Visual Representation
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7242.
Break and hold above 7242 would target 7268 / 7296
Holding below 7242 would target 7212 / 7180 / 7160
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 19.32 and 17.28. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 7296 with VIX below 17.28 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 7160 with VIX above 19.32 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Greatly appreciated, every day I learn something new.
Great work
Great levels