ES Daily Plan | May 29, 2026

Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

ES Weekly Plan | May 25-29, 2026

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Contextual Analysis & Plan

The short-term focus today was on the 2-day balance, where the auction continued accepting higher prices following last week’s closing strength away from the 7420 HVN. During the overnight session, both a Look Above and Fail (LAAF) and a Look Below and Fail (LBAF) developed around this balance area, triggering rotation back into balance (see Figure 1). While the LAAF led to a meaningful move traversing the balance area, the LBAF ultimately produced the better outcome, which is not surprising. In an uptrend, the best long opportunities often emerge after selling efforts fail to meaningfully shift tone or momentum, typically leading to continuation in the direction of the prevailing trend.

Figure 1

The RTH session opened in the middle of the 2-day balance and initially pulled back toward 7524 (Smashlevel). If you have access to order flow and are able to monitor resting liquidity, you could observe liquidity beginning to stack below the 7524 level (see Figure 2). It’s important to understand that resting liquidity alone does not define support or resistance, but it can serve as confirmation that today’s pivot was a meaningful reference for other market participants as well. You could also observe notable aggressive buying activity around the FS VWAP. Positive headlines were, of course, released in the following period, contributing to a balance breakout. In the process, the overnight ATH at 7570.75 was cleaned up.

Figure 2

The C-period showed a delta of -5530 during the technical fill of the emotional B-period, yet closed green, signaling absorption (see Figure 3 on chart). This was a good opportunity to monitor for a long setup against the 2-day balance high. The rest of the session was rather lackluster, with a distribution forming above the Initial Balance range.

Smashlevels Recap

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The 2-day balance was considered a bullish consolidation until proven otherwise, and today confirmed that view with a breakout. A new ATH printed at 7586.50, taking out the prior overnight ATH in the process.

The immediate level of interest to gauge directional conviction is today’s afternoon pullback low at 7571. Intraday strength would be indicated by building value above 7595 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7551 (DT1), negating today’s initiating activity.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 7571, the afternoon pullback low. Holding above 7571 signals stability and targets 7595 (UT1). Acceptance above 7595 would signal intraday strength, targeting 7615 (UT2), with a final upside target at 7635 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, failure to hold 7571 would shift focus to 7551 (DT1), with a final downside target at 7524 (FDT) under sustained selling pressure.

Visual Representation

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Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7571.

• Holding above 7571 would target 7595 / 7615 / 7635

• Break and hold below 7571 would target 7551 / 7524

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 16.52 and 14.96. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7635 with VIX below 14.96 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7524 with VIX above 16.52 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.