ES Daily Plan | May 28, 2026
Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead
— For new subscribers
The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
Quick update: not much changed today from a contextual standpoint, with the market largely repeating Tuesday’s price action and closing unchanged. During the overnight session, buyers capitalized on sellers getting stuck at a poor location on Tuesday by reclaiming 7540 (UT1), triggering continuation toward the holiday ATH at 7569.75. A new ATH printed at 7570.75, a reference to carry forward as unfinished business, given that it remained untested during the RTH session.
The RTH session opened within Tuesday’s range, and early attempts to reclaim 7540 were met by sellers, resulting in rotational activity. The conditions were clear: buyers needed acceptance above 7540, while sellers needed value building below Tuesday’s range to trigger further weakness. Neither scenario materialized, leading to a two-sided auction. Sellers made several attempts to gain traction below the Initial Balance low, but breaks below 7519 (Smashlevel) were met by responsive buyers, offering Look Below and Fail setups (see Figure 1). Note how the 5D VPOC shifted higher from 7427 to 7540, a bullish indication in the context of Thursday’s and Friday’s initiation from value. Value continues to follow price, suggesting that no meaningful shift in tone has occurred.
Smashlevels Recap
Following buyers’ initiation from value on Thursday and Friday, the auction has transitioned into a 2-day balance at the prior ATH, with prices currently being accepted higher. This is a bullish consolidation until proven otherwise. We carry forward a new overnight ATH at 7570.75 as unfinished business.
Balance guidelines apply. Only a sustained breakdown of the 2-day balance is likely to shift the short-term tone. As always, failed attempts to shift momentum can offer opportunities in the direction of the prevailing trend; be aware of false breaks.
The general balance guideline is to trade in the direction of a break from the 2-day balance area, while monitoring for acceptance or rejection. A failure to achieve acceptance after a breakout attempt often leads to a rotation back into the prior balance, and then toward the opposite side of the range.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 7524, last week’s high. Holding above 7524 signals stability and targets the prior ATH at 7540 (UT1). Acceptance above 7540 would signal intraday strength, targeting the holiday ATH at 7570.75 (UT2), with a final upside target at 7595 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.
On the flip side, failure to hold 7524 would shift focus to the support area between 7495 and 7484 (DT1), with a final downside target at 7456 (FDT) under sustained selling pressure.
Visual Representation
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7524.
Holding above 7524 would target 7540 / 7570 / 7595
Break and hold below 7524 would target 7495 / 7484 / 7456
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 17.10 and 15.48. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 7595 with VIX below 15.48 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 7456 with VIX above 17.10 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Thank you Smashelito!
Thank you Smash 🍻