ES Daily Plan | May 27, 2026

Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

ES Weekly Plan | May 25-29, 2026

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Contextual Analysis & Plan

Note: Monday’s holiday session has been removed from the chart, as it is treated as an overnight session. Carry forward the holiday ATH at 7569.75 as unfinished business, given that it has not yet been revisited during RTH. I would also carry forward Friday’s after-hours high at 7495, which the holiday session gapped above overnight. Notably the session was capped by the final upside target at 7565 (FUT). The overnight session immediately began retracing the gains, which is not uncommon following thin holiday trade. The key level to monitor was, of course, the prior ATH and 2-week balance high at 7540, as discussed in the pre-open analysis. Notably, both the ON VPOC and FS VWAP were positioned at 7540 heading into the RTH session, confirming the importance of the level (see Figure 1).

The RTH session opened within the 2-week balance area, and buyers attempted a breakout during the Initial Balance. A failed Initial Balance extension in the C-period, however, triggered weakness. The early gains were quickly retraced in the D- and F-periods, bringing a potential failed breakout scenario into play. The Look Above and Fail of 7540 should have triggered additional weakness, but stronger sellers were absent, which made trading tricky for the remainder of the session. Note the lack of excess at today’s low, suggesting crowded momentum sellers were caught at a poor location and unable to gain meaningful traction within last week’s range.

Smashlevels Recap

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Today’s session produced conflicting market-generated information, with an early failed breakout followed by a lack of stronger sellers to capitalize on the failure. The auction remains stuck between the prior ATH at 7540 and last week’s high, leaving it in a bit of no man’s land.

Keep it simple: value building above 7540 would be a bullish development, keeping the broader context unchanged and targeting the holiday ATH at 7569.75, carried forward as unfinished business.

Value building below 7519 would end the daily structure of higher highs and higher lows, opening the door to build on today’s failed 2-week balance breakout.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 7519, today’s low and the holiday opening level. Holding above 7519 signals stability and targets the prior ATH at 7540 (UT1). Acceptance above 7540 would signal intraday strength, targeting the holiday ATH at 7569.75 (UT2), with a final upside target at 7595 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, failure to hold 7519 would shift focus to the support area between 7495 and 7484 (DT1), with a final downside target at 7456 (FDT) under sustained selling pressure.

Visual Representation

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Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7519.

• Holding above 7519 would target 7540 / 7569 / 7595

• Break and hold below 7519 would target 7495 / 7484 / 7456

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 17.88 and 16.14. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7595 with VIX below 16.14 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7456 with VIX above 17.88 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.