ES Daily Plan | May 21, 2025
Key Levels & Market Context for the Upcoming Session.
For new followers: The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final upside target (FUT) and shorts below the final downside target (FDT). It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.
Make sure to review the Weekly Plan, which provides a broader perspective and highlights key levels of interest to observe in the upcoming week.
Visual Representation
Contextual Analysis & Plan
Quick update, as the context remains unchanged following today’s inside day. The overnight session saw sneaky price action—early strength cleaned up Monday’s poor high before reversing and marking the high of the full session. Since the cleanup did not occur during the RTH session, we carry forward Monday’s high as poor. The remainder of the overnight session was spent trading around the Smashlevel at 5967, which was also the most traded price by time (TPOC).
The 5967 level, which had confluence with multiple references as discussed, played a pivotal role during the RTH session—it capped the upside for the entire session and provided great short setups (see Figure 1). The session was overall very quiet until the final couple of periods. Buyers made two attempts to reclaim 5967, first during the C-period and then again during the H-period. After the latter failed, a liquidation break unfolded, stopping out aggressive buyers, who were absorbed by passive sellers. The move cleaned up the small set of single prints from Monday’s B-period and filled some of the A-period excess before responsive buyers stepped in, leading to a return to the most traded price by volume (VPOC) for the session at 5960. The short-term value (5D VPOC) shifted higher—from 5908 to 5960.
Yesterday’s outside day up was followed by a very quiet inside day—our short-term focus. We apply balance guidelines as a framework: failed attempts to gain acceptance outside the 5967–5927 range present opportunities to fade back toward today’s value. A sustained breakout targets the cleanup of Monday’s poor high, while a breakdown would target the HVN at 5908, cleaning up Thursday’s poor structure in the process.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 5949—a notable low volume node (LVN). Holding above 5949 would target 5967 (UT1). Acceptance above 5967 would then target 5988 (UT2), with a final upside target (FUT) at 6014 under sustained buying pressure. On the flip side, failure to hold above 5949 would target 5927 (DT1), with a final downside target (FDT) at 5905 under sustained selling pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 5949.
Holding above 5949 would target 5967 / 5988 / 6014
Break and hold below 5949 would target 5927 / 5905
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 19.06 and 17.12. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 6014 with VIX below 17.12 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 5905 with VIX above 19.06 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Thanks Smash! Great visual.
Thanks