ES Daily Plan | May 20, 2025
Key Levels & Market Context for the Upcoming Session.
For new followers: The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final upside target (FUT) and shorts below the final downside target (FDT). It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.
Make sure to review the Weekly Plan, which provides a broader perspective and highlights key levels of interest to observe in the upcoming week.
Visual Representation
Contextual Analysis & Plan
Today’s session was a great reminder of the importance of cutting through the noise and focusing solely on the chart—letting key references guide your bias. It’s an essential approach for anyone serious about trading. Opportunities were plentiful today (see Figure 1).
The overnight session opened with immediate weakness, quickly tagging the initial downside target at 5921 (DT1) in an exhaustive move, where buyers stepped in (see Figure 2). The resulting bounce led to a test of the Smashlevel at 5948—an important level due to the presence of trapped inventory above Friday’s initial balance. The 5948 level was rejected to the tick, leading to continued downside pressure. In the event of weakness, the downside magnet was the high volume node at 5908–5905, which was tagged pre-open. As noted on X before the open, after reaching the HVN, sellers needed acceptance below 5905 (FDT) for continued weakness, while their line of defense was at 5921 (DT1).
The RTH session opened on a true gap down, and similar to Thursday’s session, the pressure was on sellers to deliver—since they are the ones attempting to shift the tone relative to both the previous session and the prevailing buyer-controlled trend. The VIX was elevated, meaning a hold below 5905 had the potential to get nasty. However, the market started rallying right out of the gate, with buyers reclaiming 5921 and closing the gap. Always remember that in an uptrend, simply the lack of initiating selling is often enough for responsive buyers to step in. Buyers then reclaimed and held the retest of 5948, providing the first solid setup of the RTH session—targeting 5967 (UT1) and 5990 (UT2). After the vicious morning squeeze, the market didn’t have enough energy to reclaim 5990 (HOD: 5987.50), with the retest of 5967 providing a few bounces.
Similar to Thursday—when sellers attempted to shift the tone from Wednesday but failed—today’s session followed a similar script. After gapping lower, sellers once again failed to gain traction, triggering a squeeze and the formation of an outside day up. The profile lacks excess and remains imbalanced to the upside, which buyers aim to complete.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 5967—the 2025 opening level—which aligns with multiple references. Holding above 5967 signals strength, targeting the poor high at 5988 (UT1) and the daily NVPOC at 6014 (UT2), with a final upside target (FUT) at 6034 under sustained buying pressure, completing today’s imbalanced profile. On the flip side, failure to hold above 5967 would target 5948 (DT1), with a final downside target (FDT) at 5921 under sustained selling pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 5967.
Holding above 5967 would target 5988 / 6014 / 6034
Break and hold below 5967 would target 5948 / 5921
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 19.08 and 17.18. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 6034 with VIX below 17.18 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 5921 with VIX above 19.08 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Thank you Smash! Sellers got smoked again.
You make market profile so easy to read