ES Daily Plan | May 2, 2025
Key Levels & Market Context for the Upcoming Session.
For new followers: The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final yellow upside target and shorts below the final yellow downside target. It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.
Make sure to review the Weekly Plan, which provides a broader perspective and highlights key levels of interest to observe in the upcoming week.
Visual Representation
Contextual Analysis
Wednesday’s session ended with closing strength, forming an upward spike in the M-period, followed by further strength after-hours on earnings. Buyers were able to sustain the upside momentum during the overnight session, immediately reclaiming the initial upside target at 5626—signaling strength. The market spent the remainder of the overnight session building a distribution between 5626 and the final upside target at 5670 (ONH: 5662.25).
The RTH session opened with a true gap up and was initially characterized by two-sided activity. The initial balance remained within the overnight distribution, with sellers unable to break through the 5626 level (IBL: 5627.25), suggesting a bullish bias. Change took place in the C-period, as buyers extended the initial balance high, tagging and exceeding the final upside target at 5670. The D-period saw a continuation higher, but the trend day attempt ultimately failed when the E-period ended the intraday one-time framing up and filled the C-period single prints. Notably, the VIX held above its 23.26 support during the break of 5670—a detail that, as regular readers know, typically signals cautious chasing. Additionally, 5670 represents the 61.8% retracement from the all-time high (RTH-only) and aligns with a weekly NVPOC from early April (5675), making it tricky to chase. Once the E-period returned within the initial balance range, two-sided activity resumed. Unlike yesterday, today's closing session was marked by weakness, resulting in a downward spike.
Wednesday’s closing session was marked by strength, forming an upward spike, followed by additional gains after-hours on earnings. In contrast, today’s session ended with closing weakness, which was followed by after-hours downside pressure on earnings—an interesting development.
The key focus now is to monitor whether today’s true gap higher will be accepted or rejected, with immediate attention on the highlighted M-period spikes. The weakest response would involve continued downside pressure overnight, potentially forming an island reversal. Conversely, failure to gain traction within Wednesday’s spike area would signal strength.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 5628—today’s spike base. Holding below 5628 would target the unfilled gap at 5606.75. Acceptance below 5606.75 would signal weakness, targeting 5573, with a final downside target at 5550—the HVN—under sustained selling pressure. On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 5628 would target the afternoon rally high at 5667, with a final upside target at 5700 under sustained buying pressure.
Levels of Interest
Heading into tomorrow, I’ll be closely monitoring the behavior around 5628.
Break and hold above 5628 would target 5667 / 5700
Holding below 5628 would target 5606 / 5573 / 5550
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 26.12 and 23.08. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 5700 with VIX below 23.08 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 5550 with VIX above 26.12 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Pre "liberation day" buyers finally got a chance to get out...
Thank Smash!