ES Daily Plan | May 19, 2026
Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead
— For new subscribers
The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
The overnight session opened below Friday’s range and the HVN at 7420 (DT1), but a quick reclaim of this level opened the door for a rotation higher. This move ultimately failed to sustain, despite the market initially building value above 7420 following the reclaim. The next break of 7420 triggered a move lower, testing the next level of interest at 7390 (DT2). This level marked last week’s value area low and coincided with the Monthly VWAP, a key area for sellers to build value below this week in order to meaningfully shift the tone, as discussed in the Weekly Plan. 7390 ultimately capped the downside today. The VIX printed a high of 19.44, very close to our resistance level at 19.48.
The RTH session opened within Friday’s range, and two great setups developed early on (see Figure 1).
The first was a Look Below and Fail (LBAF) of 7420 (DT1), triggering a squeeze toward 7448 (Smashlevel). The second was a Look Above and Fail (LAAF) of 7448, which ultimately marked today’s HOD (see Figure 2). The afternoon session was all about the 7390 (DT2) level. Sellers attempted to gain traction below 7390 on multiple occasions, each time was met by responsive buying. Notably, the session closed back within Friday’s range, following a closing squeeze, but value was established lower.
Smashlevels Recap
While the daily is one-time framing lower, today’s trading activity remained mostly within last week’s value area, suggesting that the overall context is unchanged.
As discussed, for sellers to meaningfully shift the tone, they would need not only establish value lower on the daily timeframe, but also on the weekly timeframe. This makes last week’s VAL at 7390, aligning with the Monthly VWAP, a key level to break, where buyers stepped in today.
Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7448 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below last week’s VAL at 7390 (DT1).
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 7415, today’s Initial Balance Low (IBL). Holding above 7415 would target 7448 (UT1). Acceptance above 7448 would signal intraday strength, targeting Friday’s true gap at 7479 (UT2), with a final upside target at 7509 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.
On the flip side, failure to hold 7415 would shift focus to last week’s VAL at 7390 (DT1), with a final downside target at 7360 (FDT) under sustained selling pressure.
Visual Representation
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7415.
Holding above 7415 would target 7448 / 7479 / 7509
Break and hold below 7415 would target 7390 / 7360
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 18.84 and 16.82. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 7509 with VIX below 16.82 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 7360 with VIX above 18.84 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Great levels today Smash. Thanks for your excellent work.
Thanks Smash!