ES Daily Plan | May 18, 2026
Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead
— For new subscribers
The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
Buyers were unable to defend 7509 (Smashlevel) during Friday’s overnight session, triggering weakness. All intraday downside targets were tagged and exceeded pre-open, while VIX remained elevated above its 18.22 resistance level. The overnight weakness led to an RTH open on a true gap down, marking a short-term shift in tone and leaving Thursday’s inventory trapped. Buyers struggled throughout the session to reclaim 7465 (FDT), a key pivot when the RTH session opens below it.
Smashlevels Recap
As discussed in the Weekly Plan, the key in the short term is to monitor whether the minor achievements from sellers on Friday can develop into something more meaningful.
Friday’s session saw a true gap down, which remains unfilled at 7479.75 and notably aligns closely with last week’s VAH.
Wednesday’s double distribution trend day was rejected in the process, with the session ultimately closing back inside its lower distribution.
Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7479 (UT1), rejecting Friday’s true gap, while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below the HVN at 7420 (DT1).
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 7448, Friday’s TPOC and halfback, aligning with the weekly VWAP and the upper end of Wednesday’s lower distribution. Holding below 7448 would target the HVN at 7420 (DT1). Acceptance below 7420 would signal intraday weakness, targeting 7390 (DT2), with a final downside target at 7360 (FDT) under sustained selling pressure.
On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 7448 would shift focus to the unfilled gap at 7479 (UT1). with a final upside target at 7509 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.
Visual Representation
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7448.
Break and hold above 7448 would target 7479 / 7509
Holding below 7448 would target 7420 / 7390 / 7360
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 19.48 and 17.38. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 7509 with VIX below 17.38 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 7360 with VIX above 19.48 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
thanks again!!
Thanks a lot, Smash!