ES Daily Plan | May 13, 2026
Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead
— For new subscribers
The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
Acceptance within last week’s range and an end to the daily one-time framing up were two key objectives needed to shift the tone from the one-sided auction we’ve seen recently. Monday’s session formed an excess high, giving this thesis more confidence to play out. Sellers gained traction within last week’s range overnight, defended the retest, and weakness followed. Buyers managed to defend 7405 (DT1) multiple times pre-open, resulting in the RTH session opening within Monday’s range.
Sellers ended the daily OTFU and breached the 7405 level immediately during the A-period. Remember, building value below 7405 was bearish intraday. Buyers failed to reclaim 7405 during the B-period after rejecting Monday’s low, and sellers subsequently extended the Initial Balance to the downside in the C-period, forming single prints and developing a double distribution profile. Downside momentum stalled at the high volume node where value was established on Wednesday and Thursday last week, an area marked in the prior plan as a potential liquidation target.
The auction was one-time framing down intraday, and during a trend day this dynamic often ends in the afternoon session, when the market typically sees an inventory correction, often leading to an afternoon rally high. The G-period formed a poor low within the HVN, and this was accompanied by the VIX making a notable lower high, a divergence not favoring sellers, an early clue that a potential break of the intraday OTFD was in play. Once the H-period took out the G-period high, shorts began to cover. Instead of an afternoon rally high forming, the auction proceeded with a V-shaped reversal. The session, however, closed within last week’s range (7427), a key level to continue to monitor.
Smashlevels Recap
Traction within last week’s range and a break of the daily higher low structure triggered a pullback today into where value was built on Wednesday and Thursday last week, from which a V-shaped reversal unfolded.
Immediate focus is on the highlighted M-period spike around last week’s high. A strong response would involve value building above the spike base, while failure to do so, i.e. rejecting last week’s high, would open the door to a traverse of the multi-day value area. PPI data on deck tomorrow.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 7420, the spike base. Holding above 7420 would target 7444 (UT1). Acceptance above 7444 would signal intraday strength, targeting 7471 (UT2), with a final upside target at 7498 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.
On the flip side, failure to hold 7420 would shift focus to 7390 (DT1), with a final downside target at 7356 (FDT), the multi-day value support, under sustained selling pressure.
Visual Representation
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7420.
Holding above 7420 would target 7444 / 7471 / 7498
Break and hold below 7420 would target 7390 / 7356
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 19.10 and 16.88. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 7498 with VIX below 16.88 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 7356 with VIX above 19.10 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Almost forgot how to short ES :|
Great levels analysis as always Smash, thanks for the great work you do.
Thanks for the great explanation of the weak low, I really appreciate your work, what a great guide you are for navigating these markets.
I saw a great opportunity at the end of period B, it coincided with the FS VWAP and the DT1 (7405), however I froze because the bears have not had traction these days, then there was an opportunity to reload in the IBL and I thought, it won't work anymore because the bearish scenario has already occurred, and yet it did, how psychological this game is.