ES Daily Plan | May 12, 2025
Key Levels & Market Context for the Upcoming Session.
For new followers: The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final upside target (FUT) and shorts below the final downside target (FDT). It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.
Make sure to review the Weekly Plan, which provides a broader perspective and highlights key levels of interest to observe in the upcoming week.
Visual Representation
Contextual Analysis & Plan
When the market is in balance, we use the balance guidelines as a framework to form trade hypotheses based on how price behaves around that balance area. This is discussed in greater detail in the Weekly Plan, which is worth checking out.
As discussed, the market is currently in a 7-day balance area, awaiting additional market-generated information to guide its next move. Friday’s session formed an inside day, keeping Thursday’s buyers trapped within its main distribution; however, Wednesday’s spike area remains respected.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 5693—Friday’s afternoon resistance. Holding below 5693 would target Wednesday’s spike base at 5656 (DT1), with a final downside target (FDT) at the support area between 5620 and 5610 under sustained selling pressure. On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 5693 would target Friday’s HVN at 5725 (UT1), with a final upside target (FUT) at 5750 under sustained buying pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 5693.
Break and hold above 5693 would target 5725 / 5750
Holding below 5693 would target 5656 / 5620 / 5610
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 23.12 and 20.68. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 5750 with VIX below 20.68 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 5610 with VIX above 23.12 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Thank you Smash!
Thank you Smashie!