ES Daily Plan | May 11, 2026
Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead
— For new subscribers
The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
On Friday, a Look Below and Fail (LBAF) at 7350 during the overnight session, the Smashlevel (pivot), triggered a strong continuation higher that cleared all intraday upside targets into 7427 (FUT) and printed a new ATH at 7427.75. As the auction approached 7427, the VIX held well above its support level at 16.02, suggesting that chasing longs was unfavorable, and a pullback subsequently unfolded.
Smashlevels Recap
The daily structure of higher highs and higher lows (OTFU) remains intact following Wednesday’s true gap higher. Value was relatively unchanged on Wednesday and Thursday, but Friday’s session saw it migrate cleanly higher, forming a P-shaped profile that lacks meaningful excess.
Buyers remain in control of the auction, and only a rejection of Friday’s value and an end to the daily OTFU has the potential to change that.
Intraday strength would be indicated by a break and hold above 7427 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7384 (DT1), implying a return into Wednesday and Thursday’s value areas.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 7405, the low volume node (LVN). Holding above 7405 signals stability and targets the ATH at 7427 (UT1). Acceptance above 7427 would signal intraday strength, targeting the 100% IB extension at 7454 (UT2), with a final upside target at 7485 (FUT), the 200% IB extension, under sustained buying pressure.
On the flip side, failure to hold 7405 would shift focus to the LVN at 7384 (DT1), with a final downside target at 7350 (FDT) under sustained selling pressure.
Visual Representation
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7405.
Holding above 7405 would target 7427 / 7454 / 7485
Break and hold below 7405 would target 7384 / 7350
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 18.22 and 16.18. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 7485 with VIX below 16.18 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 7350 with VIX above 18.22 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Thanks! Let's Smash!