ES Daily Plan | May 1, 2025
Key Levels & Market Context for the Upcoming Session.
For new followers: The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final yellow upside target and shorts below the final yellow downside target. It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.
Make sure to review the Weekly Plan, which provides a broader perspective and highlights key levels of interest to observe in the upcoming week.
Visual Representation
Contextual Analysis
The key level heading into today’s session was 5575—the upper end of Tuesday’s lower distribution. The main question was whether buyers could defend this level and establish value in Tuesday’s upper distribution, which would confirm the trend day. However, buyers quickly lost control of the 5575 level during the overnight session, immediately putting pressure on traders positioned in Tuesday’s upper distribution. The failure to defend 5575 quickly led to a test of the crucial 5550 level, which aligned with both the Weekly VWAP and short-term value (5D VPOC), as previously discussed. The 5550 level provided a solid bounce with minimal drawdown, leading to a revisit of 5575 pre-open.
A wave of pre-open data releases triggered a liquidation break in the market. As a result, the final downside target at 5512 was tagged, where a distribution formed pre-open alongside the VIX breaking above its resistance level of 25.68. This weakness continued into the RTH session with an immediate break of the 5512 level—a move that was not appealing to fade given the elevated VIX. The market proceeded lower to test the next level of interest at 5475, marking last week’s VPOC. As discussed in the Weekly Plan, a strong market would continue to build value above this HVN, while trouble would arise below it. A poor low was formed, and the initial RTH weakness was quickly retraced, reclaiming the 5512 level in the process.
Although the market bounced nearly 100 handles off the lows, the better (and safer) opportunities for longs came on pullbacks toward the reclaimed 5512 level. My only three trades were initiated on these pullbacks—one scratch and two winners. The VIX remained stubborn at the time, prompting me to take quick profits—which, in hindsight, was obviously the wrong call given how the closing session unfolded, with 5512 serving as the afternoon pullback low.
Today’s early liquidation break failed to gain traction below last week’s VPOC, forming a poor low that ultimately led to a reversal. The closing session produced a notable upward spike, followed by continued strength after-hours on earnings. The key focus now is the highlighted spike area—a strong market would hold within or above it, while a weak response would involve a return below 5573.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 5607/5573. Holding above 5607 would signal strength, targeting 5626, with a final upside target at 5670 under sustained buying pressure. On the flip side, failure to hold above 5573 would target the crucial 5550 level, with a final downside target at 5512—the afternoon pullback low—under sustained selling pressure.
Levels of Interest
Heading into tomorrow, I’ll be closely monitoring the behavior around 5607/5573.
Holding above 5607 would target 5626 / 5670
Break and hold below 5573 would target 5550 / 5512
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 26.14 and 23.26. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 5670 with VIX below 23.26 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 5512 with VIX above 26.14 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Nice to see executions!
Yes thank you for the extra info! Really appreciate it!