ES Daily Plan | March 6, 2025
Key Levels & Market Context for the Upcoming Session.
For new followers: The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final yellow upside target and shorts below the final yellow downside target. It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.
Visual Representation
Contextual Analysis
For most of the overnight session, the market held above the prior YTD low of 5813—a crucial short-term inflection point. Similar to the previous overnight session, weakness emerged during the European session, pushing the market back below the 5815–13 area, which remained pivotal in the RTH session.
The market attempted to break above 5815–13 during the initial balance—the first hour of the RTH session—but sellers were waiting. The initial balance was characterized by two-sided activity, with the C-period continuing this pattern, printing an inside bar. Change took place in the D-period when sellers extended the initial balance to the downside, leading to a test of the initial downside target at 5759. To sustain downside pressure, sellers needed to break and hold below this level, but they ultimately failed, triggering responsive buying activity. During the afternoon session, buyers started to gain traction above the 5815–13 area following some choppy price action during the G, H, and I-periods. The final upside target at 5864 was almost tagged to the tick in the J-period, after which the upside momentum stalled. The market closed back within Monday’s lower distribution, with short-term value (5D VPOC) still at 5966. The key question now is whether sellers can push back into the value area from the past two sessions and shift the 5D VPOC lower, or if the market will initiate a short-covering rally back to value, trapping sellers below the Weekly Extreme Low of 5815. Tomorrow's session will hold importance in that regard.
Today's session resulted in an inside day, with responsive buyers and sellers active at the extremes of Tuesday’s range. The general guideline suggests going with the break of the inside day and monitoring for either continuation (acceptance) or lack thereof (rejection). If there is a lack of continuation following a breakout attempt, it can often trigger a move in the opposite direction. The short-term focus is on the highlighted lower distribution from Monday’s session, which will determine short-term control.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 5864, marking the upper end of Monday’s lower distribution. Holding below this level would target the support area between 5823 and 5813, with a final target at 5789 under sustained selling pressure. Conversely, failure to hold below 5864 would target fills of the poor structure toward the resistance area between 5898 and 5908, with a final target at 5931 under sustained buying pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow's session, I will closely observe the behavior around 5864.
Break and hold above 5864 would target 5898 / 5908 / 5931
Holding below 5864 would target 5823 / 5813 / 5879
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 23.68 and 20.18. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 5931 with VIX below 20.18 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 5879 with VIX above 23.68 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Weekly Plan
Make sure to review the Weekly Plan, which provides a broader perspective and highlights key levels of interest to observe in the upcoming week.
Thank you very much!
Thanks Smash! The 5759 level was a homerun!