ES Daily Plan | March 5, 2025
Key Levels & Market Context for the Upcoming Session.
For new followers: The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final yellow upside target and shorts below the final yellow downside target. It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.
Visual Representation
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Contextual Analysis
For most of the overnight session, the market held above the Smashlevel at 5864, filling Monday’s L-period single prints in the process. However, during the European session, sellers gained traction below the 5864–58 area, leading to a quick traverse of Monday’s lower distribution and a test of the Weekly Extreme Low at 5815.
Although the 5815 level provided a solid 20-handle bounce pre-open, the RTH session still opened outside of Monday’s range with a small true gap. The gap was filled in the A-period, where sellers were waiting. The market quickly breached 5815, which marked both the final intraday downside target and the Weekly Extreme Low (final weekly target), making today’s session particularly tricky. The VIX also breached its resistance level of 24.36 early on, adding downside pressure. I’m generally not very active in these conditions, as the risk-reward profile isn’t very attractive in either direction. We are currently dealing with an emotional, low-liquidity market, meaning you either size down or step aside and let the market stabilize. The initial balance range was 80 handles, and at one point, the market was ~200 handles below short-term value (5D VPOC)—obviously not an ideal location to press new short positions. At the same time, trying to pick bottoms is a game I always leave for other traders. Remember, not every price is actionable. After tagging the MA200 (non-back-adjusted), a vicious short-covering rally unfolded. However, after a look above 5864 and fail, the market closed back within the value area. SPX MA200 is at 5725 (ES~5736) for reference.
Emotional trading activity continues as the market prints a new YTD low after breaking the January low at 5813, which now becomes an obvious inflection point to monitor in the short term. Buyers aim to reclaim 5813, with their primary objective being to establish acceptance back within the previous week’s range. Building value below 5813 maintains downside pressure—today’s low is poor.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 5813, marking the prior YTD low. Holding below this level would maintain downside pressure, targeting 5759, with a final target at 5721 under sustained selling pressure. Conversely, failure to hold below 5813 would target the previous week’s low at 5848, aligning with the Weekly VWAP, with a final target at 5864 under sustained buying pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow's session, I will closely observe the behavior around 5813.
Break and hold above 5813 would target 5823 / 5848 / 5864
Holding below 5813 would target 5759 / 5721
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 25.20 and 21.82. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 5864 with VIX below 21.82 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 5721 with VIX above 25.20 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Weekly Plan
Make sure to review the Weekly Plan, which provides a broader perspective and highlights key levels of interest to observe in the upcoming week.
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