ES Daily Plan | March 4, 2025
Key Levels & Market Context for the Upcoming Session.
For new followers: The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final yellow upside target and shorts below the final yellow downside target. It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.
Visual Representation
Contextual Analysis
A vicious short-covering rally unfolded during Friday’s closing session, resulting in a notable M-period spike. The key focus heading into today's session was whether Friday's closing spike would be accepted or rejected. Failure to fill the spike area, or only partially filling it, would signal short-term strength, while a return into Friday's value area would be a bearish development, confirming that Friday’s move was driven by short-covering rather than stronger buyers. The overnight session showed sustained strength, reclaiming the 5967 level before testing the initial upside target at 5990. However, buyers were unable to hold above it pre-open, which would have been bullish intraday.
The RTH session opened with a true gap up, but after another failed attempt to reclaim 5990, the market moved lower and filled the gap during the A-period. The most bearish outcome of a gap higher—acceptance back within the previous day’s range—had already played out in the A-period. Two-sided activity took place between the Smashlevel at 5966 and the initial downside target at 5936 for a couple of hours before the H-period extended the initial balance to the downside. Note that today’s VPOC remains in the upper distribution, where the 5D VPOC is also located (5966). The key question now is whether sellers can sustain downside pressure and shift the 5D VPOC lower or if a lack of selling pressure will lead to a return to 5966. As always, I have no idea—I simply use levels to gauge how effectively participants are achieving their respective objectives. Similar to Thursday’s session, the K-period and the remaining periods were emotional, forming two large sets of single prints and tagging the weekly support area between 5845 and 5815. As always, the earlier in the week the Weekly Extremes are tagged, the riskier they become to chase. A decent bounce unfolded during the closing session.
An emotional triple distribution profile to the downside kicks off the week as the market rejects Friday’s closing strength. The conditions are straightforward: A weak market will continue to establish value within Friday’s value area, keeping the door open for a potential revisit of the January lows, while buyers aim to reclaim the LVN at 5931.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 5864, marking the M-period high. Holding below this level would target today’s M-period spike base at 5831, with a final target at 5815 under sustained selling pressure—a crucial area for buyers to defend. Conversely, failure to hold below 5864 would target fills of the poor structure toward the resistance area between 5898 and 5908, with a final target at 5931 under sustained buying pressure—a Low Volume Node (LVN) that buyers need to reclaim.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow's session, I will closely observe the behavior around 5864.
Break and hold above 5864 would target 5898 / 5908 / 5931
Holding below 5864 would target 5831 / 5815-13
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 24.36 and 21.20. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 5931 with VIX below 21.20 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 5815 with VIX above 24.36 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Weekly Plan
Make sure to review the Weekly Plan, which provides a broader perspective and highlights key levels of interest to observe in the upcoming week.
Brilliant stuff as always!
thank you Smashie!