ES Daily Plan | March 4, 2024
Friday’s profile was marked by two small sets of single prints in the B and I-period. Of these, the latter, situated at 5139, will serve as my short-term reference point.
Visual Representation
For new followers, the yellow levels highlighted at the bottom are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final yellow upside target and shorts below the final yellow downside target. It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.
Contextual Analysis
For the better part of the previous week, the market remained in a state of balance, characterized by two-sided activity, effectively establishing value at higher prices. The inability of sellers to re-enter the prior 2-week balance area, resulting in the formation of a weak low, ultimately led to a breakout on Friday. As is typical with any breakout scenario, the structure left behind is poor and the primary focus is to closely monitor for continuation (Acceptance) or lack thereof (Rejection). Keep a close eye on buyers' ability to shift the short-term value (5D VPOC) higher, currently at 5085, indicating acceptance.
Friday’s profile was marked by two small sets of single prints in the B and I-period. Of these, the latter, situated at 5139, will serve as my short-term reference point. The strongest response would involve maintaining above it, targeting an upside continuation toward 5165 and 5182. Acceptance below 5139 would open the door for a retest of the previous ATH at 5123, with the weakest response involving a return within the prior multi-day balance area.
For tomorrow, the Smashlevel (Pivot) is 5139, representing Friday’s I-period single prints. Holding above 5139 would target the current ATH at 5149. Acceptance above 5149 would target an upside continuation toward 5165 and the final upside target of 5182. Break and hold below 5139 would target the previous ATH at 5123, coinciding with the halfback. Acceptance below 5123 would target Thursday’s spike base of 5106.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow's session, I will observe 5139.
Holding above 5139 would target 5149 / 5165 / 5182
Break and hold below 5139 would target 5123 / 5106
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 13.68 and 12.54. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 5182 with VIX below 12.54 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 5106 with VIX above 13.68 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Weekly Plan
Be sure to check out the Weekly Plan, which provides a broader perspective and highlights significant levels of interest to watch in the coming week.
Disclaimer: Futures and options trading involves a high level of risk, with the potential for substantial losses. The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be a trade recommendation. It is the responsibility of the reader to make their own investment decisions and they should seek the advice of a qualified securities professional before making any investments. The owners/authors of this newsletter are not certified as registered financial professionals or investment advisers.
Thank you, great work 🤟
Thanks for the great update, hope you have a fantastic week. 5139 has both H & I TPOs in the chart but it’s a single print, I’m not sure if that is correct or not… maybe based off volume?