ES Daily Plan | March 31, 2025
Key Levels & Market Context for the Upcoming Session.
For new followers: The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final yellow upside target and shorts below the final yellow downside target. It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.
Visual Representation
Contextual Analysis
A brief recap of Friday’s session was published on Substack (link), highlighting how the VIX levels in each plan can provide valuable insights. Friday’s session tagged and exceeded its final downside target at 5688 early on, with VIX confirming the weakness by breaking above its resistance level of 19.62. Regular readers of this newsletter know I generally avoid fading in such scenarios, as they often signal the potential for further downside—a simple yet powerful concept that helps avoid fighting the trend, which can be devastating on days like Friday. After breaking the 5688 level, the market dropped an additional 80 handles, with traders selling every bounce. The recap also highlights a repeatable trade setup that emerged pre-open as the market tested 5713—well worth a closer look.
Wednesday’s session wiped out Monday’s and Tuesday’s gains, putting Monday’s breakout into question as the market closed back within the prior balance area. Thursday’s session continued to build value within this balance area, increasing the risk of testing the opposite side of the range, which was ultimately achieved on Friday as the market established a triple distribution trend day.
As discussed in the Weekly Plan, the focus now is on whether sellers can sustain downside momentum. Note that Friday’s RTH low was breached during after-hours trading, making it an immediate reference point for gauging strength or weakness.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 5619, Friday’s RTH low. Holding below this level targets 5592, with a final downside target at the support area between 5560 and 5550 under sustained selling pressure. On the flip side, failure to hold below 5619 would open the door for a traverse of Friday’s lower distribution toward 5643. Acceptance within the middle distribution targets 5662, with a final upside target at 5687 under sustained buying pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow's session, I will closely observe the behavior around 5619.
Break and hold above 5619 would target 5643 / 5662 / 5687
Holding below 5619 would target 5592 / 5560 / 5550
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 22.84 and 20.46. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 5687 with VIX below 20.46 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 5550 with VIX above 22.84 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Weekly Plan
Make sure to review the Weekly Plan, which provides a broader perspective and highlights key levels of interest to observe in the upcoming week.
Hola Smashelito. Per favore, mira il VIX nel su plano. Mi pare che hai un errore.
Thank you! Will be an interesting open.