ES Daily Plan | March 3, 2025

Key Levels & Market Context for the Upcoming Session.

Mar 02, 2025

For new followers: The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final yellow upside target and shorts below the final yellow downside target. It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.

Visual Representation

Contextual Analysis

A brief recap of Friday’s session was published on Substack (link), illustrating how the VIX levels in each plan can serve as valuable confluence around key levels. While the correlation between ES and VIX levels is a useful tool for gauging market strength and weakness, it should complement your own strategies rather than be relied upon exclusively.

Thursday’s session saw a downside continuation in the afternoon, catching many traders off guard, as the market had returned to balance on Wednesday after forming an excess low on Tuesday. While Friday’s session looked to accept Thursday’s weakness, a vicious short-covering rally was triggered in the closing session, leading to a quick trip back to value.

As discussed in the Weekly Plan, the key focus now is to monitor whether Friday’s closing spike will be accepted or rejected. Failure to fill the spike area, or only partially filling it, would signal short-term strength, while a return into Friday's value area would signal a bearish development.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 5966, marking last week’s VPOC, aligning with the 2025 opening level. Holding below this level targets fills of Friday’s highlighted M-period spike area down to 5937, the M-period halfback, with a final target at the support area between 5920 and 5910 under sustained selling pressure—a crucial area for buyers to defend. Conversely, failure to hold below 5966 would target 5990, with a final target at the resistance area between 6015 and 6025 under sustained buying pressure.

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow's session, I will closely observe the behavior around 5966.

Break and hold above 5966 would target 5990 / 6015 / 6025
Holding below 5966 would target 5937 / 5920 / 5910

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 21.02 and 18.24. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

Break and hold above 6025 with VIX below 18.24 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 5910 with VIX above 21.02 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.