ES Daily Plan | March 28, 2025
Key Levels & Market Context for the Upcoming Session.
For new followers: The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final yellow upside target and shorts below the final yellow downside target. It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.
Visual Representation
Contextual Analysis
The key focus heading into today's session was last week’s high at 5771, which buyers needed to reclaim to prevent further downside pressure. The overnight session looked below Wednesday’s range and failed early on, triggering a counter-move that led to a test of the crucial 5771 level, where sellers were waiting.
The RTH session followed a similar pattern, showing early weakness that led to a break of the overnight low, followed by a fill of Monday’s true gap at 5722.25. This level was crucial for buyers to defend, which is why I highlighted it as a key decision point in the previous plan. The market filled the gap and immediately reversed, triggering a 60-handle rally. Traders monitoring the provided VIX levels could see how, during the gap-fill, VIX tested its resistance level at 19.22 (HOD: 19.28), providing confluence. During the C and D-periods, buyers attempted to reclaim the 5771 level; however, despite a decent effort, they ultimately failed, triggering a pullback. The rest of the session was characterized by two-sided activity within the previous week’s range and Wednesday’s lower distribution, with buyers being responsive within the A-period excess and sellers continuing to defend last week’s high at 5771.
Sellers successfully defended last week’s high at 5771, which remains a key level buyers need to reclaim, along with 5791, marking Wednesday’s breakdown single prints. Failure to do so—meaning if sellers continue to establish value within last week’s range (the prior balance area)—increases the risk of a test toward the opposite side of the range, a common target area after failed breakouts.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 5734, the top of today’s A-period excess. Holding above this level targets last week’s high at 5771, with a final upside target at 5791 under sustained buying pressure. On the flip side, failure to hold above 5734 would indicate continued weakness, targeting Friday’s spike base at 5713 (aligned with a HVN), with a final downside target at 5688 under sustained selling pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow's session, I will closely observe the behavior around 5734.
Holding above 5734 would target 5771 / 5791
Break and hold below 5734 would target 5713 / 5688
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 19.62 and 17.76. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 5791 with VIX below 17.76 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 5688 with VIX above 19.62 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Weekly Plan
Make sure to review the Weekly Plan, which provides a broader perspective and highlights key levels of interest to observe in the upcoming week.
Awesome job smash, the levels worked great today again, helped me have some nice winning trades
Ďakujem Smashie!