ES Daily Plan | March 27, 2026
Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead
— For new subscribers
The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction — discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
Wednesday’s session settled within the high volume node at 6635, where both the 5D and 20D VPOC are located, areas from which directional moves are typically initiated, as discussed. During the overnight session, sellers attempted to gain control by repeatedly testing the Smashlevel at 6631, marking last week’s value area low. Buyers were initially responsive within Wednesday’s excess low; however, they ultimately failed to hold it, resulting in downside pressure, which increased following a break of the initial downside target at 6611.
The overnight weakness led to a true gap down open in the RTH session, completely outside the prior day’s range. As always, a lack of immediate downside continuation generally triggers an inventory correction. The gap was filled in the A-period, and once filled, the key is whether buyers can gain traction within the prior day’s range, signaling a bullish outcome. Failure to do so would keep sellers in control, as the shift in tone from opening below the prior day’s range would not be negated. Note the poor high formed at today’s high, with momentum buyers stuck in a poor location, failing to gain traction within Wednesday’s range. Change then took place in the F-period, when sellers successfully initiated an initial balance breakdown, forming single prints. The final downside target at 6544 was reached in the I-period, and an elevated VIX that held above its resistance level during the afternoon session contributed to continued downside pressure.
The auction was coiling for a directional move from the high volume node at 6635, initiated today by sellers, who established a triple distribution trend day to the downside. The big after-hours move was notably retraced almost instantly. The key to monitor now is today’s distributions to gauge the strength or weakness of the auction, with immediate attention on 6549.
Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 6580, signaling a return within today’s upper distribution, while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 6511, opening the door to a downside continuation of today’s imbalance.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 6549, the upper end of the lower distribution. Holding below 6549 would maintain downside pressure, targeting 6511 (DT1). Acceptance below 6511 would signal intraday weakness, targeting 6470 (DT2), with a final downside target at 6446 (FDT) under sustained selling pressure.
On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 6549 would shift focus to the initial balance low at 6580 (UT1), with a final upside target at 6611 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 6549.
Break and hold above 6549 would target 6580 / 6611
Holding below 6549 would target 6511 / 6470 / 6446
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 29.54 and 25.34. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 6611 with VIX below 25.34 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 6446 with VIX above 29.54 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Thanks Smash! As you always say, now its continuation or back to value!
hey smash can you update the VIX levels for tomorrow? I think they are stale in the writeup compared to the visual chart