ES Daily Plan | March 27, 2025
Key Levels & Market Context for the Upcoming Session.
For new followers: The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final yellow upside target and shorts below the final yellow downside target. It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.
Visual Representation
Contextual Analysis
Overnight trading remained within Tuesday’s range, with buyers holding the 5819 level. While the session was relatively uneventful, the RTH session told a different story.
In the RTH session, 5819 initially attracted responsive buyers, but the subsequent bounce met selling activity. The eventual break of 5819 was accompanied by notable aggressive selling, with A-period closing with a negative delta of nearly 8K. Sellers sustained downside pressure in the following periods, ending the daily one-time framing up in the process. Buyers had been in short-term control of the auction, but the potential for change depended on whether sellers could break the 5795-5786 support area. They accomplished this in the E-period, forming single prints as VIX simultaneously broke its resistance level of 17.96. Buyers attempted to fill these single prints in the G-period, but the broken support area acted as resistance, opening the door to the final downside target at 5760 (G-period high: 5785.50). The 5760 level was tagged and briefly exceeded, but the closing session saw a bounce after forming a poor low.
Monday’s breakout is in serious trouble after today’s double distribution trend day to the downside, which formed single prints in the E-period. The session closed back within the previous week’s range, making last week’s high at 5771 an inflection point going forward. Buyers must reclaim two key levels immediately: 5771 and 5791. Failure to do so would sustain downside pressure, opening the door to filling the gap at 5722, where a crucial decision will need to be made.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 5771. Holding below this level signals continued weakness, targeting today’s poor low at 5743. Acceptance below 5743 targets the unfilled gap at 5722.25, with a final downside target at 5688 under sustained selling pressure. On the flip side, reclaiming 5771 would target 5791, with a final upside target at the resistance area between 5813 and 5823 under sustained buying pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow's session, I will closely observe the behavior around 5771.
Break and hold above 5771 would target 5791 / 5813 / 5823
Holding below 5771 would target 5743 / 5722 / 5688
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 19.22 and 17.44. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 5823 with VIX below 17.44 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 5688 with VIX above 19.22 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Weekly Plan
Make sure to review the Weekly Plan, which provides a broader perspective and highlights key levels of interest to observe in the upcoming week.
Filling the downside gap certainly confirms this failed breakout. But markets are full of surprises, hence the reason we plan on the daily basis. Thank you for the brilliant work, master Smash! 💥
Dank je Smash!
I missed ya for a couple of days!
Thank you for the CBOT papers - homeworrrrrrrrk!