ES Daily Plan | March 24, 2025
Key Levels & Market Context for the Upcoming Session.
For new followers: The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final yellow upside target and shorts below the final yellow downside target. It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.
Visual Representation
Contextual Analysis
A brief recap of Friday’s session was published on Substack (link), highlighting how the VIX levels in each plan can provide valuable confluence at key market levels. Friday’s session exemplified how traders could avoid shorting around the 5657 level by leveraging insights from the daily plan, released prior to the overnight session’s opening. Keep in mind that levels and correlations serve as guidelines, and not absolutes—what truly matters is how the market behaves when these confluences come into play. The session closed over 60 handles higher after failing to gain traction below 5657. The recap also includes my thought process throughout the session.
As discussed in the Weekly Plan, the market is currently in a short-term balance, coiling for a directional move as it awaits further market-generated information. If we take a look at the volume profile from last week, we can identify three distributions. While the 5-day balance area remains the primary focus, immediate attention is on the highlighted middle distribution within last week's profile.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 5725, marking a low volume node that separates the middle and upper distributions. Holding below this level targets 5688, with a final downside target at the support area between 5662 and 5652 under sustained selling pressure. On the flip side, reclaiming 5725 would open the door for a test of the resistance area between 5750 and 5760, with a final upside target at 5786 under sustained buying pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow's session, I will closely observe the behavior around 5725.
Break and hold above 5725 would target 5750 / 5760 / 5786
Holding below 5725 would target 5688 / 5662 / 5652
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 20.24 and 18.32. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 5786 with VIX below 18.32 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 5652 with VIX above 20.24 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Weekly Plan
Make sure to review the Weekly Plan, which provides a broader perspective and highlights key levels of interest to observe in the upcoming week.
Thanks Smash! Testing resistance instantly.
Muchas Gracias, Smashelito. Wish good trades to everyone in the week ahead. Cheers from Helsinki.