ES Daily Plan | March 23, 2026
Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead
— For new subscribers
The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction — discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
Heading into Friday’s session, the immediate focus was on Thursday’s notable excess high, as discussed in Friday’s plan. Responsive sellers stepped in within Thursday’s excess high during the overnight session, leading to sustained downside pressure. In the process, the market completed a full 100% range extension from the prior multi-week balance, sweeping the November low (see Figure 1).
A double distribution trend day formed on Friday, with J-period single prints separating the distributions. The session closed in the lower distribution; however, after-hours trading pushed price back into the upper distribution. The key question now is whether buyers can find acceptance above the breakdown single prints at 6581.
Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 6616, Friday’s afternoon rally high, while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold of Friday’s spike base at 6544.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 6581, the lower end of Friday’s upper distribution. Holding below 6581 would target Friday’s spike base at 6544 (DT1). Acceptance below 6544 would signal intraday weakness, targeting the Monthly Extreme Low at 6511 (DT2), with a final downside target at 6470 (FDT) under sustained selling pressure.
On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 6581 would shift focus to Friday’s afternoon rally high at 6616 (UT1), with a final upside target at 6643 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 6581.
Break and hold above 6581 would target 6616 / 6643
Holding below 6581 would target 6544 / 6511 / 6470
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 28.94 and 24.62. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 6643 with VIX below 24.62 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 6470 with VIX above 28.94 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Looks like another gap down open! Thanks Smash!