ES Daily Plan | March 21, 2025
Key Levels & Market Context for the Upcoming Session.
For new followers: The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final yellow upside target and shorts below the final yellow downside target. It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.
Visual Representation
Contextual Analysis
Quick update today as the context remains unchanged. The battleground, as reiterated pre-open on X, was between the initial intraday upside target of 5754 and the downside target of 5682. Sellers were active at 5754 overnight, leading to a quick traverse of the lower distribution to test 5682, where buyers stepped in. The VIX tested its resistance level of 21.02 during this sequence and again during the opening pullback in the RTH session, providing valuable confluence.
As mentioned, the RTH session saw an opening pullback toward 5682, which buyers were quick to absorb, triggering a sharp move back toward 5754. The C-period extended the initial balance high, but the key question was how attractive it was to chase after an initial balance that moved in a straight line without any pullbacks. Typically, a very wide IB sets the stage for rotational activity, meaning potential short setups became of interest if the market returned within its initial balance and below the 5754 level. The obvious target was the Smashlevel at 5723, which aligned with the B-period single prints.
The rest of the session was spent filling the wide A-period excess, and the market closed within Wednesday’s lower distribution. In three of the last four sessions, the market has struggled to gain meaningful traction above the 5725 level; however, sellers have been unable to return to Tuesday’s main distribution. Buyers aim to build value within the #3 distribution, highlighted in the chart, while the most favorable outcome for sellers would be a return to distribution #1.
The battleground between 5754 and 5682 was the key area today and remains important moving forward, following today’s inside day. Responsive activity is expected within this range, while a stronger directional move requires acceptance beyond its extremes. OPEX tomorrow!
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 5725, marking a LVN. Holding below this level would target 5682, with a final target at 5657 under sustained selling pressure. Conversely, failure to hold below 5725 would target 5754, with a final target at 5786 under sustained buying pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow's session, I will closely observe the behavior around 5725.
Break and hold above 5725 would target 5754 / 5786
Holding below 5725 would target 5682 / 5657
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 20.82 and 18.76. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 5786 with VIX below 18.76 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 5657 with VIX above 20.82 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Weekly Plan
Make sure to review the Weekly Plan, which provides a broader perspective and highlights key levels of interest to observe in the upcoming week.
Excellent market analysis and prediction, as always.
Which feed/symbol do you use in Sierra Chart to get the same VIX line as in the picture above? There are so many different options there... Please help me. Thanks!
Dank je Smash!