ES Daily Plan | March 17, 2026
Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead
— For new subscribers
The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction — discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contract Rollover
A quick reminder: I’ve switched to the ESM26 (June) contract. For reference, I do not back-adjust my charts. I recommend marking 6636 on your chart, as roll gaps often tend to get filled.
“Contract rollovers can be confusing. While some traders choose to back-adjust their charts, I prefer to leave historical levels unchanged, which results in a visible roll gap. This is a matter of personal preference—neither approach is inherently better, as both have pros and cons. For short-term traders, the impact is generally minimal, since we navigate the market day by day. I typically scale back activity during rollover periods, as order flow tends to become noticeably less reliable.”
Contextual Analysis & Plan
The overnight session immediately looked below the initial downside target at 6665 (DT1) and failed, triggering a quick move to test the Smashlevel at 6692. That level produced a solid reversal, leading to a retest of 6665 where buyers stepped in (see Figure 1). This marked the low of the full session, and the subsequent reclaim of 6692 opened the door for price exploration higher. The most traded price by time (TPOC) overnight was right at our initial upside target at 6716 (UT1), where a distribution was established. From there, upside continuation developed prior to the RTH open, tagging the next level of interest at 6749 (UT2).
The pre-open push higher formed two small sets of single prints, and the RTH session immediately filled one of them before moving to the final upside target at 6770 (FDT), which was tagged in the A-period, marking the first 30 minutes of the RTH session. The opening strength was accompanied by the VIX dropping its support at 25.10, meaning that if buyers could establish acceptance above the FDT at 6770, bullish continuation would be in play, which we generally do not want to fade. Buyers were unable to do so, resulting in a balanced session with two-sided activity largely within the initial balance range.
Strength overnight led to the completion of all intraday upside targets (FUT: 6770), after which the market consolidated its gains, forming a balanced profile.
The key to monitor now is whether buyers can maintain short-term upside momentum. Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 6772, while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold of 6716.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 6740, the Initial Balance low. Holding above 6740 would target 6772 (UT1). Acceptance above 6772 would signal intraday strength, targeting Wednesday’s excess base at 6805 (UT2), with a final upside target at 6839 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.
On the flip side, failure to hold above 6740 would shift focus to 6716 (DT1). Acceptance below 6716 would signal intraday weakness, targeting 6692 (DT2), with a final downside target at 6665 (FDT) under sustained selling pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 6740.
Holding above 6740 would target 6772 / 6805 / 6839
Break and hold below 6740 would target 6716 / 6692 / 6665
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 25.34 and 21.68. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 6839 with VIX below 21.68 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 6665 with VIX above 25.34 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Love it thank you!
Thanks for everything, Smash! Have a great session!