ES Daily Plan | March 17, 2025
Key Levels & Market Context for the Upcoming Session.
For new followers: The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final yellow upside target and shorts below the final yellow downside target. It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.
Visual Representation
Contract Rollover
As mentioned in the Weekly Plan, starting tomorrow, I will transition to the ESM25 (June) contract. For reference, I do not back-adjust my charts. On the chart, I've marked the settlements from Friday's session for both ESH25 (March) at 5640 and ESM25 (June) at 5692.25, reflecting a +52.25 point difference. I recommend marking 5640 on your chart, as roll gaps often tend to get filled. The levels for tomorrow are based on Friday's session from the ESM25 (June) contract.
Contract rollovers often create confusion. While some traders choose to back-adjust their charts, I prefer to leave historical levels unchanged, resulting in a visible roll gap on the chart. This choice is a matter of personal preference—neither approach is inherently superior, as both have their advantages and disadvantages. For short-term traders, the impact is minimal since we navigate the market day by day, and my weekly targets remain the same regardless of the method used. I generally scale back activity during rollover periods, as order flow becomes noticeably less reliable.
Contextual Analysis
On Thursday, the market attempted another directional move lower, which ultimately failed and triggered a move in the opposite direction on Friday. This resulted in a double distribution profile with single prints in the C-period. The closing session formed an M-period spike, with its base aligning with the settlement, which holds short-term interest.
With key events this week—Retail Sales, FOMC, Initial Jobless Claims—combined with the complexities of contract rollover and OPEX, bold market predictions are better avoided in favor of a steady day-by-day approach.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 5692, marking Friday’s ESM25 settlement. Holding below this level would target 5660, with a final target at Friday’s ESH25 settlement of 5640 under sustained selling pressure. Conversely, failure to hold below 5692, would target 5721, with a final target at 5750 under sustained buying pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow's session, I will closely observe the behavior around 5692.
Break and hold above 5692 would target 5721 / 5750
Holding below 5692 would target 5660 / 5640
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 23.04 and 20.48. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 5750 with VIX below 20.48 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 5640 with VIX above 23.04 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
For traders still on the ESH25 contract, the adjusted levels are as follows:
Going into tomorrow's session, I will closely observe the behavior around 5640.
Break and hold above 5640 would target 5669 / 5698
Holding below 5640 would target 5608 / 5588
Weekly Plan
Make sure to review the Weekly Plan, which provides a broader perspective and highlights key levels of interest to observe in the upcoming week.
Invaluable as always. Is there somewhere you share how you arrive at the VIX levels? They are remarkably accurate and effective in helping to avoid fading a strong move in either direction.
Thank you for esh level as well.. you are so thoughtful ..