ES Daily Plan | March 16, 2026
Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead
— For new subscribers
The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction — discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contract Rollover
As mentioned in the Weekly Plan, starting tomorrow, I will transition to the ESM26 (June) contract. For reference, I do not back-adjust my charts. On the chart, I’ve marked the settlements from Friday’s session for both ESH26 (March) at 6636 and ESM26 (June) at 6685.75, reflecting a +49.75 point difference. I recommend marking 6636 on your chart, as roll gaps often tend to get filled.
Contract rollovers can be confusing. While some traders choose to back-adjust their charts, I prefer to leave historical levels unchanged, which results in a visible roll gap. This is a matter of personal preference—neither approach is inherently better, as both have pros and cons. For short-term traders, the impact is generally minimal, since we navigate the market day by day. I typically scale back activity during rollover periods, as order flow tends to become noticeably less reliable.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
Friday’s session formed an outside day down following the failure to fill Thursday’s true gap early in the session, where sellers were waiting.
As discussed in the Weekly Plan, the market is one-time framing down across all time frames, meaning it’s forming lower highs and lower lows on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts, signaling weakness until proven otherwise.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 6692, the HTF level. Holding below 6692 would target 6665 (DT1). Acceptance below 6665 would signal intraday weakness, targeting the ESH26 settlement at 6636 (DT2), with a final downside target at 6600 (FDT) under sustained selling pressure.
On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 6692 would shift focus to 6716 (UT1). Acceptance above 6716 would signal intraday strength, targeting the unfilled gap at 6749 (UT2), with a final upside target at 6770 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 6692.
Break and hold above 6692 would target 6716 / 6749 / 6770
Holding below 6692 would target 6665 / 6636 / 6600
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 29.32 and 25.10. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 6770 with VIX below 25.10 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 6600 with VIX above 29.32 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Adjusted levels for traders still on the ESH26 contract:
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 6642.
Break and hold above 6642 would target 6666 / 6699 / 6720
Holding below 6642 would target 6615 / 6586 / 6550
Thanks Smash!
Smash, thank you for always bringing such valuable content, thank you for your consistency and for everything you do, you're a great mentor.
The newsletter didn't load the paragraph explaining levels, which is usually "In Terms of Levels."