ES Daily Plan | March 14, 2024
Today’s session resulted in an inside day, marked by its price range being contained within the previous day’s range, which implies short-term balance.
Visual Representation
For new followers, the yellow levels highlighted at the bottom are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final yellow upside target and shorts below the final yellow downside target. It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.
Contextual Analysis
Just a quick reminder that I have transitioned to the ESM24 (June) contract. Please note that I do not back-adjust my charts. On the chart, I have marked the settlements for both ESH24 (March) (5129) and ESM24 (June) (5192.50) from Friday’s session (+63.50 difference). I suggest marking 5129 on your chart, as roll gaps often tend to get filled. Whether you choose to back-adjust or not, the crucial point is that my intraday targets remain the same.
In light of the uneventful nature of today's session and the unchanged context, there's no need for an extensive analysis. Trading took place at the upper end of Tuesday’s range during the overnight session, with minor price exploration above its high observed during the European hours. Furthermore, the trading activity in the RTH session remained entirely within Tuesday’s range, resulting in the establishment of an inside day.
While the daily technically maintains its one-time framing up, the market is currently taking a breather following Tuesday’s emotional session. The general guideline suggests going with the break of the inside day and observing for continuation (Acceptance) or lack thereof (Rejection). If there's a lack of continuation following a breakout attempt, it can trigger moves in the opposite direction. Buyers managed to shift the short-term value (5D VPOC) from 5160 to 5233, which is bullish in the context of Tuesday’s directional move.
Today’s session resulted in an inside day, marked by its price range being contained within the previous day’s range, which implies short-term balance. Responsive activity is expected within today's range, while a directional move requires acceptance beyond its extremes. The upper extreme has unfinished business. A break to the upside would target 5260 followed by the resistance area from 5280 to 5290, in the case of continued strength. Conversely, a downside break would target fills of Tuesday’s structure toward the support area from 5202 to 5192. PPI on deck tomorrow.
For tomorrow, the Smashlevel (Pivot) is 5243, representing today’s open level. Break and hold above 5243 would target the next level of interest situated at 5260. Acceptance above 5260 would target the resistance area from 5280 to the final upside target of 5290, representing the Weekly Extreme High. Holding below 5243 would target the CPI high at 5221. Acceptance below 5221 would target the support area from 5202 to the final downside target of 5192—a crucial area for buyers to maintain.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow's session, I will observe 5243.
Break and hold above 5243 would target 5260 / 5280 / 5290
Holding below 5243 would target 5221 / 5202 / 5192
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 14.34 and 13.16. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 5290 with VIX below 13.16 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 5192 with VIX above 14.34 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Weekly Plan
Be sure to check out the Weekly Plan, which provides a broader perspective and highlights significant levels of interest to watch in the coming week.
Disclaimer: Futures and options trading involves a high level of risk, with the potential for substantial losses. The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be a trade recommendation. It is the responsibility of the reader to make their own investment decisions and they should seek the advice of a qualified securities professional before making any investments. The owners/authors of this newsletter are not certified as registered financial professionals or investment advisers.
Really appreciate all the effort you put into this.
Thanks, pal! Another successful trading day, just required a bit of patience, but it paid off in the end with green.