ES Daily Plan | March 13, 2025
Key Levels & Market Context for the Upcoming Session.
For new followers: The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final yellow upside target and shorts below the final yellow downside target. It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.
Visual Representation
Contextual Analysis
The overnight session was quiet during the Asian hours; however, volatility picked up during the European session as buyers managed to reclaim 5600, the Weekly Extreme Low. Note how downside momentum stalled after tagging 5600 earlier in the week, emphasizing how tricky it can be to chase further downside. This is a reminder to always exercise caution once the weekly extremes are hit, especially early in the week. After the CPI data release, the market spiked higher, tagging both the final upside target at 5642 and the extended target area between 5670-80, where sellers were waiting. The market returned back below 5642 before the opening of the RTH session.
The RTH session opened slightly below the 5642 level, our final upside target. With the VIX holding above its support level of 24.64, it was not a favorable scenario to chase on the long side, given that sellers have been controlling the auction for the past few weeks. Had buyers reclaimed 5642, with the VIX dropping below its support, it would have been a different story. However, anticipating this in a prevailing downtrend is unfavorable. Unsurprisingly, the market rejected 5642, leading to a test of 5600 and, eventually, the Smashlevel at 5550 following the failure to hold the 5600 level. Can we agree that the trade location for seeking long setups was indefinitely better at 5550 than at 5642? Not because of the actual outcome, but because of the overall context. After defending 5550 almost to the tick (LOD: 5550.25), buyers managed to reclaim and hold 5600 essentially for the rest of the session. However, they were unable to revisit the 5642 level despite the VIX breaking its support later on. The short-term value (5D VPOC) has shifted lower from 5750 to 5620, highlighting that value continues to follow price.
Buyers narrowly succeeded in ending the daily one-time framing down today, now forming a 2-day balance as the market takes a breather. The key question now is whether buyers can build on this minor achievement, which would require reclaiming the important 5642 level. Failure to do so would negate the potential for short-term change, keeping sellers firmly in control. PPI on deck tomorrow!
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 5600/5592, marking today’s value support. Holding above this area would target 5642, with a final target at the resistance area from 5670 and 5680 under sustained buying pressure. Conversely, failure to hold above 5600/5592 would target the top of today’s excess low at 5568, with a final target at 5550 under sustained selling pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow's session, I will closely observe the behavior around 5600/5592.
Holding above 5600 would target 5642 / 5670 / 5680
Break and hold below 5592 would target 5568 / 5550
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 26.20 and 22.26. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 5680 with VIX below 22.26 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 5550 with VIX above 26.20 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Weekly Plan
Make sure to review the Weekly Plan, which provides a broader perspective and highlights key levels of interest to observe in the upcoming week.
Thanks Smash, and agree!
Thanks Samsh. Great plan as always!