ES Daily Plan | June 9, 2026
Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead
— For new subscribers
The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
A key reference discussed heading into this week was the 4-week balance low at 7354 (DT1), which proved significant today. The overnight session saw a Look Below and Fail (LBAF) of Friday’s after-hours low, coming within six ticks of testing 7354, where buyers stepped in (ON Low: 7355.50). A poor low actually formed, which was not a development that initiating sellers wanted to see. Initially, price action was contained between 7354 (DT1) and 7395 (Smashlevel) (see Figure 1).
Buyers then reclaimed 7395, and gaining traction within Friday’s range opened the door to filling the poor structure, supported by the VIX opening below its support level at 20.26. The final upside target at 7478 (FUT) was nearly reached during the overnight session, typically making the RTH session more difficult to trade as patience is required.
The RTH session opened within Friday’s middle distribution and pulled back early toward the FS VWAP, where buyers were waiting. Buyers initially struggled to regain traction above 7449 (UT2) during the B-period, but the C-period reclaimed the level, opening the door to a test of Friday’s afternoon rally high at 7478 (FUT). Sellers stepped in at 7476.75, marking the session high. If we reflect on optimal trade location, why was 7354 a poor area to initiate shorts, and why was 7478 more favorable? Observe the large distribution on the composite volume profile for clues. In the short term, we can expect two-sided trade within this distribution, while the next directional move would require acceptance outside its extremes.
Smashlevels Recap
The lack of initiating activity overnight at 7354, the 4-week balance low, attracted responsive buyers today. Friday’s poor structure was partially filled in the process, with sellers stepping in at Friday’s afternoon rally high at 7478, the final target for today.
The session closed within Friday’s lower distribution, a weak close relative to where the auction spent most of its time today, making it crucial to monitor for continuation or lack thereof.
Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7429 (UT1), today’s Initial balance Low, while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7354 (DT1), the 4-week balance low.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 7395, Friday’s excess base. Holding above 7395 signals stability and targets 7429 (UT1). Acceptance above 7429 would signal intraday strength, targeting today’s RTH open at 7457 (UT2), with a final upside target at 7478 (FUT), Friday’s ARH, under sustained buying pressure.
On the flip side, failure to hold 7395 would shift focus to the 4-week balance low at 7354 (DT1), with a final downside target at 7327 (FDT), the top of the gap, under sustained selling pressure.
Visual Representation
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7395.
Holding above 7395 would target 7429 / 7457 / 7478
Break and hold below 7395 would target 7354 / 7327
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 20.02 and 17.82. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 7478 with VIX below 17.82 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 7327 with VIX above 20.02 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Thanks Smash!
Levels are great
Thanks for sharing