ES Daily Plan | June 9, 2025
Recap, Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead
— For new subscribers
The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction — discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the ES Weekly Plan | June 9-13, 2025 for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
As discussed in the Weekly Plan, the market finally closed above the 3-week balance high at 5988 on Friday, after struggling to do so during both Wednesday’s and Thursday’s sessions. While this marks a potential breakout, the move has so far lacked strong conviction, making it crucial to monitor for continuation—or lack thereof—tomorrow. A higher or unchanged value area would indicate a bullish response, while a move back below 5988 would put the weekly balance breakout into question.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 6019—Friday’s value resistance. Holding below 6019 would target the support area between 5995 and 5988 (DT1), with a final downside target (FDT) at 5956, the inside week high, under sustained selling pressure.
On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 6019 would signal strength, targeting 6034 (UT1), with a final upside target (FUT) at 6050 under sustained buying pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 6019.
Break and hold above 6019 would target 6034 / 6050
Holding below 6019 would target 5995 / 5988 / 5956
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 17.64 and 15.60. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 6050 with VIX below 15.60 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 5956 with VIX above 17.64 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Thank you Smash! Instant weakness!
Thank you very much!