ES Daily Plan | June 8, 2026
Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead
— For new subscribers
The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
Heading into Friday, strength would be signaled by a reclaim of 7611, while weakness would be indicated by a failure to defend 7570, as outlined in Friday’s plan. Sellers breached 7570 overnight, leading to weakness. During the RTH session, the final downside target at 7537 (FDT) was immediately breached, while the VIX broke above its resistance level at 16.28. Regular readers of this newsletter are aware that holding below FDT (7537), with the VIX above its resistance level, is not an ideal environment for seeking reversals, a view that proved correct on Friday.
Smashlevels Recap
Friday’s emotional session formed a multi-distribution trend day, with four sets of single prints, ending the weekly one-time framing up in the process. Eyes are on the composite volume profile and how Friday’s after-hours weakness approached the lower end of a large distribution formed during the prior weekly balance. The key question is whether initiating sellers can follow through or if some responsive activity is on deck first.
Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7420 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7354 (DT1), the 4-week balance low.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 7395, Friday’s excess base. Holding below 7395 maintains downside, targeting the 4-week balance low at 7354 (DT1), with a final downside target at 7327 (FDT), the top of the gap, under sustained selling pressure.
On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 7395 would shift focus to the 20D VPOC at 7420 (UT1). Acceptance above 7420 would signal intraday strength, targeting fills of poor structure toward 7449 (UT2), with a final upside target at 7478 (FUT), the afternoon rally high, under sustained buying pressure.
Visual Representation
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7395.
Break and hold above 7395 would target 7420 / 7449 / 7478
Holding below 7395 would target 7354 / 7327
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 22.76 and 20.26. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 7478 with VIX below 20.26 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 7327 with VIX above 22.76 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Thank you!