ES Daily Plan | June 7, 2024
ES Daily Plan | June 7, 2024
Buyers maintain short-term control, with the market consolidating within yesterday’s upper distribution—accepting the directional move from the inside day breakout.
For new followers: the yellow levels highlighted at the bottom are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final yellow upside target and shorts below the final yellow downside target. It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.
Visual Representation
Contextual Analysis
Today's session printed a new all-time high, cleaning up the overnight ATH. Aside from that, it was relatively uneventful. Buyers maintain short-term control, with the market consolidating within yesterday’s upper distribution—accepting the directional move from the inside day breakout. Consolidating at higher prices is favoring further upside, with targets set at 5390 and 5405. The main objective for sellers is to end the daily one-time framing up by taking out today’s low of 5345.25. Achieving this would target a cleanup of Wednesday’s structure toward the high volume node at 5323. NFP data pre-open tomorrow.
As discussed yesterday, we are currently trading within the weekly resistance area, which has stalled the upside momentum and makes tomorrow’s session tricky to navigate, especially with NFP. The key question is whether buyers will be able to shift the short-term value (5D VPOC) higher, or if the market will return to 5323, or potentially 5284.
For tomorrow, the Smashlevel (Pivot) is 5362/5358, representing today’s M-period spike base and the prior ATH. Holding above 5362, signaling strength, would target an upside continuation toward 5375, as well as the Weekly Extreme High of 5390. Acceptance above 5390 would then target the final upside target of 5405. Break and hold below 5358 would target a traverse of today’s upper distribution toward 5337. Acceptance below 5337 would then target a return to the medium-term value (20D) VPOC at 5323.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow's session, I will closely observe the behavior around 5362/5358.
Holding above 5362 would target 5375 / 5390 / 5405
Break and hold below 5358 would target 5337 / 5323
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 13.22 and 11.94. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 5405 with VIX below 11.94 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 5323 with VIX above 13.22 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Weekly Plan
Be sure to check out the Weekly Plan, which provides a broader perspective and highlights significant levels of interest to watch in the coming week.
Disclaimer: Futures and options trading involves a high level of risk, with the potential for substantial losses. The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be a trade recommendation. It is the responsibility of the reader to make their own investment decisions and they should seek the advice of a qualified securities professional before making any investments. The owners/authors of this newsletter are not certified as registered financial professionals or investment advisers.
Thank you! A pop to 5390 and back below 5358 would be spicy!