ES Daily Plan | June 30, 2026

Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

ES Weekly Plan | June 29 - 3 July, 2026

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Contextual Analysis & Plan

The key question heading into today’s session was whether sellers could maintain downside pressure following Friday’s closing weakness. The 7410 (Smashlevel) level served as a key reference for gauging that response. Buyers immediately reclaimed 7410 overnight, triggering short covering. In the process, both 7444 (UT1) and 7472 (FUT) were tagged ahead of RTH.

The RTH session produced a great opportunity in the B-period, but before that, buyers attempted to gain traction above 7472 (FUT) in the A-period. Chasing above 7472 was unfavorable given that VIX held well above its support level at 17.38. Price exploration above 7472 found responsive sellers, which led to a liquidation break. This short-term weakness resulted in a test of 7410 (Smashlevel) in the B-period, where buyers stepped in. What made this sequence particularly compelling was that VIX simultaneously tested its resistance level at 19.44, almost to the tick (HOD: 19.45) (see Figure 1). A reversal of nearly 100 handles followed, partially filling last week’s gap in the process.

The key takeaway from today’s session was the importance of patience with trade location. Chasing 7472 early was unfavorable, while long setups around the key 7410 level were far more attractive from a contextual standpoint, regardless of outcome. Always mark levels and areas where you want to engage before the session; they don’t have to be my levels. I personally prefer to avoid in-depth analysis during the session so I can focus entirely on execution.

Smashlevels Recap

Figure 1

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Friday closed weak, but value was unchanged relative to Thursday’s session, which ultimately played in buyers’ favor today, with 7410 playing a key role. Friday closed below last week’s value area, while today closed back above it, making it key to monitor for continuation or lack thereof.

Value building above last week’s VAH opens the door to filling last week’s gap at 7527.25, while the HVNs at 7444 and 7416 are likely to act as downside magnets if that fails to occur.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7490, the Initial Balance High. Holding above 7490 signals stability and targets the unfilled gap at 7527 (UT1), with 7560 (FUT), the Weekly Extreme High, serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, failure to hold 7490 would shift focus to the afternoon pullback low at 7472 (DT1). Acceptance below 7472 would signal intraday weakness, targeting the HVN at 7444 (DT2), with 7416 (FDT) serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.

Visual Representation

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Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7490.

• Break and hold above 7490 would target 7527 / 7560

• Holding below 7490 would target 7472 / 7444 / 7416

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 18.64 and 16.68. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7560 with VIX below 16.68 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7416 with VIX above 18.64 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.